Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Santa Anita Derby, Distaff
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The prospect of sustained heavy rain over several days caused Keeneland to move the first two cards of its spring meet, Friday and Saturday, to Monday and Tuesday. That blows a hole in the Saturday stakes schedule, which is littered with short fields, several difficult to play.
Santa Anita Derby
Yes, this one has the shortest stakes field of them all, with just five entered. Worse, I’m siding with the favorite. But even a short favorite in a short field can pay more to win than he should, which could happen with Journalism.
From the bottom up: Westwood can improve but looks like filler. His stablemate, Baeza, has drawn some support because of a third-start maiden win that earned a good speed figure, and because his dam, Puca, produced 2023 Derby winner Mage and Dornoch, the Belmont and Travers winner last year. Baeza’s performance didn’t do much for me. The race favorite looked like he broke down – he didn’t, thank goodness – when pulled up on the first turn, leaving Baeza with three rivals and an easy win.
They rode Barnes in the San Felipe like he needed to get a jump on his main rivals to win. Asked at the three-furlong marker, Barnes opened a lead of several lengths at the quarter pole. Journalism easily ran him down in that 1 1/16-mile contest, and this 1 1/8-mile trip only widens the divide. More red flags than green lights come out of Barnes’s subsequent work pattern. In his most recent breeze, they sat him way off an overmatched workmate and had him come through inside to win, an odd work for a speedy horse from this barn.
Barnes probably still gets some win support, though not as much as Citizen Bull, a plucky, fast, game, consistent three-time Grade 1 winner who, from the look of his drills, comes to the Santa Anita Derby in fine fettle.
And yet, watching Citizen Bull work, then switching to Journalism, the choice is clear over 1 1/8 miles. As good as Journalism ran last time, he’s going to run better Saturday, probably heading to Kentucky a defined Derby favorite.
Even in January, Journalism felt like the Santa Anita Derby winner. Everything about his 2-year-old campaign suggested a true route horse ready to move far forward at 3. What I didn’t think is he’d be sharp enough to win the San Felipe. Was he ever. The March 29 breeze shows on the page as a moderate five furlongs in 1:01.40. The time tells nothing. Journalism went easily under the wire, picked it up into the clubhouse turn, went past the seven-furlong marker really motoring, and galloped out forever. I can’t see him losing.
Distaff
While Irish Maxima clearly merits favoritism, Sea Dancer holds all the upside in the Distaff.
Sea Dancer won twice in her first 13 starts, all on turf, mainly in California, but has gone 2 for 2 since being sold at auction, transferred to trainer Brittany Russell, and switched to dirt.
Sea Dancer scored easily last time over a decent Brown-trained horse and did so despite pulling far too hard for far too long while held up behind a slow pace. Cutting back to seven furlongs, the filly can run more freely, and no surprise if she does even better in an extended sprint than in the two recent route victories.
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