Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Sanford, My Dear, Horseshoe Indianapolis
?q=100)
The 2-year-old season has begun in earnest, the racing world year after year cycling ever onward, bouncy juveniles carrying their humans’ grand visions of Breeders’ Cups, 3-year-old classics. The hopes here go no further than Saturday stakes.
Didia could have gotten a solid call in the Diana, but her price drops from the ridiculously high one in the Grade 1 New York, and while she can win without a perfect trip, Didia did get one last month.
Sanford
“Confident handling” – so reads the short comment from Mentee’s debut. Okay, then. Maybe Mentee’s jockey merely looked back over his shoulder three or four times in the final furlong and a half gauging just how much he needed to ask his mount to win while saving something for the next race. I doubt it.
Mentee already had started losing steam at the furlong grounds, and he was life and death hanging on in that five-furlong maiden special. The race yielded a whopping Beyer Speed Figure. Maybe Mentee’s a budding star. I see a horse moving from an ideal draw in post 7 last time to post 1 here, from which he’ll take pace pressure while trying to stretch that speed to six furlongs – all as the heavy favorite.
Seems like an excellent opportunity for a skeptical approach.
Baby Dukes came under consideration. Granted, he debuted at Parx, not in New York, and his figure came back 25 points lower than Mentee’s, but Baby Dukes’ 4 1/2-furlong performance suggested he’ll better suit this longer sprint. Baby Dukes led first out but looked like a youngster who might settle behind.
Studlydoright already has done that – twice – and he’s a strong positive Sanford opinion.
This is one unusual 2-year-old. Bred to run farther, Studlydoright lacks gate speed and has a long, rambling stride that doesn’t seem capable of getting him home in short sprints. Twice now he has sat behind rivals and finished full of run, rallying along the rail first out, coming off it for a final push last time while going about his business like a confident colt unfazed by the chaos and stress of a race.
Were Touchy and Three Echoes stopping in the Tremont? Slowing, but not stopping, and when Studly switched outside and hit full stride between the eighth and sixteenth poles, he passed those two in a flash. He’ll run even better at six furlongs.
My Dear
Bullet may simply prove a superior 2-year-old. She fetched a bundle at auction and trainer Mark Casse debuted the filly in a stakes, which Bullet won with a blitzing outside run. That came on turf, however, and there’s no assurance that at a price likely lower than the listed 2-1 Bullet carries that form to Tapeta.
Between front-end debut winners Obliging and Carlisle Bay, the latter gets the nod. She beat a short field but came home fast, won easily, and looked physically advanced for her age. Carlisle Bay stands a greater chance than Monmouth shipper Obliging of rating off what should be a strong pace. Spindly Bound to Be True is far from physically advanced and I didn’t find her debut win especially taking.
Soupergirl is physically advanced, very much so, and at a plausible 6-1 on the line, she’s the play. It’s hard to believe Soupergirl debuted at 35-1, and she won well enough to elicit a private purchase. Her lone debut mistake came at about the five-sixteenths pole, where Soupergirl briefly came off the bridle and lost a bit of ground, but when the rider moved his hands on her, the filly jumped right back into the game.
An inside move was blocked in upper stretch but she eventually came nicely between horses and won with more in hand than the bare margin of victory before galloping out far in front. There’s more to come from this horse at a square price.
:: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets.
Horseshoe Indianapolis
Kodiac Wintergreen has two siblings who were stakes-class turf route horses. She looked like a one-run sprinter until her strong June 28 run against older horses in a Churchill first-level allowance.
A flat break placed Kodiac Wintergreen farther off the pace than need be, and as she stoked up past the quarter pole for her outside move, the horse just inside her drifted into her path, briefly stopping her momentum. Kodiac Wintergreen regrouped and flew through her final furlong. With a decent pace and a bit of luck, she can get home at Horseshoe.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.