Weekend GamePlan: Picks for San Francisco Mile, Dig A Diamond, Star Shoot
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One week out from the Kentucky Derby, this Saturday of North American racing is the calm before the storm. Rain on the East Coast and short fields in Southern California have us looking farther afield for three plays.
San Francisco Mile
Maybe I shouldn’t have used this race as a play because the horse who I’ll back, Dicey Mo Chara, might be a shorter price than I’d prefer. But I’m thinking the comeback runner Flavius with fast works and high level if fairly ancient form in his past performances is going to draw some action. Also, the trainer was quoted as saying the horse would probably need a race, which, in my experience, often translates to “He’s ready to rock and roll.”
Plucky Balnikhov did win well at Keeneland last fall but was dismal in his most recent start and just doesn’t seem to be progressing. Trainer Phil D’Amato rules the Southern California turf stakes division, but his record shipping for Golden Gate stakes is not great.
Tarantino’s trainer told Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen that the horse’s feet are feeling better after bothering him at times. Figured it was something like this since he has been in and out over the last year while showing flashes. But watching his last race, a solid second to a good horse over nine furlongs, I wondered if Tarantino has the required acceleration for this one-mile contest.
Lamplighter Jack goes way up in class but got a long look. He’s barely exposed on turf and showed last out at Santa Anita he can rate on the lead and finish strong. Not only was Lamplighter Jack going away at the wire, but he galloped out miles in front. He’ll need a cozy lead to win, and I think a couple others, Bob and Jackie especially, will apply too much pressure.
Dicey Mo Chara is drawn wide, but post 9 is manageable. The horse has done most of his work between 10 and 12 furlongs but basically ran a winning race, with trouble between the quarter pole and three-sixteenths, when cut back to one mile on Tapeta last spring at Golden Gate. Dicey Mo Chara long since showed he doesn’t need Lasix, not allowed here, and over the last five years, trainer Leonard Powell is 9-4-0-1 in Golden Gate stakes.
Dig A Diamond
Lovely Ride will be solidly favored at Oaklawn, and since I’m against her, value accrues on other horses who rate a chance.
Lovely Ride ran very strong races in December, January, and February. She was good again in March while in very tough facing Secret Oath and Clairiere. I think her late fade that afternoon signals an inevitable form decline that could continue in the Dig A Diamond, where she’s not getting an easy lead.
Tap Dance Fever is second choice on the morning line, which I suppose is merited on figures, but she’s in a new barn on a new circuit, and even one of her better performances won’t assure strong contention.
Butterbean is supposed to improve second off a long layoff for trainer Kenny McPeek, but outside two races last summer at Prairie Meadows, her form lacks luster.
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The other McPeek runner, Gunning, is the one for me. Gunning never has raced around two turns, but why can’t she? Her mother, Puca, was a route horse, and her brother, Mage, was second in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby and goes 1 1/4 miles next weekend in the Kentucky Derby. Gunning has won two sprint races this meet but didn’t have the fast-twitch action nor body type suggesting she can’t get a two-turn mile. She’s proven on a wet track if it comes to that and could get a good trip perched just behind the pace.
Star Shoot
Looks like original connections were caught stealing when running Kavala first time out for a $16,000 claiming tag. She dominated that group with a strong, sustained run, was claimed, and came back to beat a solid bunch for the class level, making her 2 for 2 over Tapeta at Gulfstream.
Her work pattern since the last win, and the fact her connections opt for this stakes race over an allowance, suggests the filly, a powerful-looking horse, still is showing signs of improvement. The added half-furlong only helps her, and most of the trainer’s stakes losses (he’s 1 for 20 over the last five years) came with no-hopers.
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