Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Sam F. Davis, Sweet Life, Suncoast
It’s already mid-February and the 3-year-old colt dirt-route division could use some clarity. Prediction: The murkiness maintains after three Kentucky Derby qualifying races are run Saturday in Florida, New York, and California.
Sam F. Davis
Everyone’s favorite punching bag the Remsen Stakes takes center stage in New York, where Remsen runner-up Arctic Arrogance is favored in the Withers, and in Florida, where Remsen hero Dubyuhnell is favored in the Sam Davis.
I’m not buying the Remsen’s quality matching the 90 Beyer Speed Figure level, and there’s nothing beyond that number separating Dubyunhell from several others here. Video of two recent Palm Meadows team workouts looked solid and unspectacular.
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Likely second choice Litigate’s sprint debut caught the eye, but do you want to bet this horse off his one-turn mile allowance performance last out at Gulfstream? He flattened out late in that race and was losing ground at the line. Subsequent workouts look encouraging on paper, but none are available on video.
Prairie Hawk is two for two in routes, both at Tampa, but his Jan. 13 win over three foes came after the favorite stumbled badly at the start and never fired. I thought this colt was moving better in his maiden score than he was last time.
If none of those is the right answer, we’re down to better prices with upside, and after toying with Notah, who looks ripe for further improvement at long odds, I settled on Classic Legacy.
This is Art Collector’s little brother and he has the look of a Bill Mott Special. Mott, unlike many major operations, doesn’t seem to mind losing early races with a young horse he thinks has long-term promise, and it looked to me like Classic Legacy, especially in his debut, was just practicing for the time during his career when he’d be more ready for battle.
He improved from his debut to his second start, and then again into his third race; those were all one-turn contests, and this colt has the look of a route horse. Mott quickly got him to Payson Park and onto a steady work schedule after his victory, and connections eschewed first-level allowance spots to try and get onto the Derby Trail. There should be ample pace to give Classic Legacy a fair run, and I expect his presence to be felt in the late stages.
Sweet Life
A European import, Manhattan Jungle, figures to be a defined Sweet Life favorite, but I’m betting a different horse who began her career overseas, Havana Angel.
Havana Angel twice shipped to France last year, easily winning a maiden race, then finishing a hard-trying third in the Prix du Bois, won by Belbek, who captured a Group 1 later in the season. Havana Angel tried a two-turn grass race in her first North American start, but where was her speed? She has plenty of it, yet wound up mid-pack at Del Mar, running decently in the end at a distance likely farther than she wants. Her Tapeta try at Golden Gate was too bad to be true, and now Havana Angel gets her first American try in a turf sprint. If she can deploy the early pace she possesses, a favorable stalking trip from a ground-saving position awaits.
Suncoast
Champion Wonder Wheel pops up here for her 3-year-old debut and will be heavily favored over Malathaat’s sister Julia Shining. I’m not convinced either wins the Suncoast.
Keep in mind that Wonder Wheel was precocious and speedy, winning her debut in June, and that type of filly often peaks in her juvenile season. Wonder Wheel got an absolute dream trip winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and not every horse takes to the Tampa surface, which will be new to her.
Julia Shining beat suspect competition in her two wins while, frankly, running slow. The outside draw’s a positive; her value’s a negative.
I liked (but failed to tout) Opus Forty Two in the Gasparilla, where she won a head bob after moving slightly early into a strong pace that fried the speed horses, galloping out several lengths clear of runner-up Charlie’s Wish. I’ll guess that filly proves more a one-run sprinter while Opus Forty Two improves again over a route of ground. Trainer Arnaud Delacour has found success in the Suncoast with fillies going sprint to route.
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