Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Red Smith, Seabiscuit, and Central Park

We’re pushing on December and this Weekend GamePlan is all about . . . turf racing?

From sunny Southern California to surprisingly temperate Ozone Park, N.Y., there’s excellent grass action Saturday. Let’s burrow in.

Red Smith

A highly competitive 11-furlong grass stakes with a dozen entrants – can’t say I saw that coming from the Red Smith.

Cold Hard Cash surely is lone speed in an otherwise paceless race but lacks the quality to truly press that advantage, and I’d put him in the third tier of contenders, ahead of horses like Daunt, Shawdyshawdyshawdy, and Beacon Hill, and alongside Dynadrive and Reigning Spirit.

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For me, the second tier includes Highest Honors, Astronaut (barely above third tier), Mooney Love (factoring in plausible improvement), and Temple.

That leaves a top tier of two – Soldier Rising and Balthus.

Soldier Rising is the shorter price (I could see him dropping lower than the listed 5-2), the more exposed of these two 4-year-olds, has a worse post position, and might be more compromised by running style in a slow-tempo race with 12 runners. Soldier Rising, already a capable nine- to 11-furlong turf horse, hit a new level in July and took that up another peg his last two starts, the final bit of improvement coinciding with a tactical change by which he was taken back to last to come with one sustained run. Soldier Rising’s compromising trouble in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic popped off the screen live and sits out there for all to see – there’s no value accruing from noting it. In fact, the more I watched his stretch run, the more I wondered just how strongly the colt truly was finishing when the rider had to take up with no room in the final half-furlong.

Yes, this is an exercise in poking holes, and Soldier Rising clearly can win. But Balthus has more upside, and, to me, had at least as tough a trip last month in the Sycamore as Soldier Rising did in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. At Keeneland, Balthus had a potential path taken away at least three times from the top of the stretch to the sixteenth pole. Finally extricated from traffic much too late to catch a perfect-trip winner, he showed he was full of run with a strong burst to the wire, finishing fastest. That performance came after Balthus had consecutively won maiden, first-level, and second-level allowance races on the New York circuit – no mean feat. He remains a horse on the rise and can take a better position from a more favorable draw than his chief rival.

Seabiscuit

Santin, Smooth Like Strait, Beyond Brilliant, and Set Piece all drop from Grade 1 company into the Grade 2 Seabiscuit. Here’s hoping they’re bet accordingly, because I think this is Hong Kong Harry’s spot.

Santin looked entirely over the top last out at Keeneland; I’ve been a supporter of the horse but have a really hard time backing him off that flat showing and with his two best races over an exceedingly quirky Churchill grass course. Set Piece did perform commendably in the Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland, but I take that showing to be an absolute peak; he’s established as a half-notch below the best here. Beyond Brilliant finished in front of Smooth Like Strait in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but I prefer Smooth Like Strait in the Seabiscuit. For whatever reason, he failed to change leads at Keeneland, and might have come up short after missing an intended prep.

Hong Kong Harry no doubt was flattered closing into a hot pace winning the Del Mar Mile, but I still loved the way he went about his business there, and in every North American start, he has at least shown a flash of brilliance. Not eligible to the Breeders’ Cup, he’s been aimed at the Seabiscuit by California’s top turf outfit, and I think they’re hitting the bull’s-eye Saturday.

Central Park

While General Jim, who runs with a somewhat high head carriage and even higher stride, did win by open lengths at Keeneland, and Let’s Go Big Blue finished solidly after meaningful upper-stretch trouble last out, I’m playing Liar’s Poker in the Central Park. He did a lot of things right winning his career debut, albeit in New York-bred maiden company, but also did enough things wrong to suggest he can take a considerable step forward second time out. His positional speed should play well, and the price almost certainly will be right.

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