Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Red Smith, Maple Leaf, Smart Halo

Thoroughbred racing flows through its own seasons that don’t necessarily accord with the calendar. The Breeders’ Cup ends the summer-fall period. This weekend opens the door to winter racing and on toward 2024 Classics. Full stakes fields abound. Hunker down by the fire with your Daily Racing Form.

Red Smith

Soldier Rising is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in this 11-furlong fixture and is a horse to play against 10 times out of 10 at a price like that in a race like this. It’s not a question of whether Soldier Rising fits, because he does, and if you want to point out that the winners of three of his last four starts – War Like Goddess, Bolshoi Ballet, and Up to the Mark – would be solidly favored here, go ahead. Soldier Rising runs to the level of competition, and, moreover, by the time he got to the 2022 Red Smith, he was cooked.

We know who Soldier Rising is. Same can be said of divisional stalwarts like Cross Border, Limited Liability, Verstappen, and Master Piece.

Nineeleventurbo is a newcomer to the division though not a young horse. He’s a 6-year-old who only in the last handful of starts has truly found himself, and since he was second in his only other stakes race to Gold Phoenix, one of the only Californians to race respectably at the Breeders’ Cup when he finished fourth in the Turf, Nineeleventurbo might land a blow. He is, however, a forward-running horse who might get too much of a strong pace.

The 3-year-old Lost Ark isn’t exposed on turf, his lone grass start a decent third two back in the 1 1/16-mile Saranac. His 10-furlong off-turf win last out showed that 1 1/16 miles is shorter than ideal, and this marks Lost Ark’s second start in blinkers. He’s a stronger chance than 20-1.

I’m going with the other fresh face, Marwad, who would offer good value at 10-1, his morning-line price, though I’d peg him a little shorter.

Connections had early insight on Marwad, throwing him into the Virginia Derby 14 months ago as a 66-1 shot who had only a maiden win atop his résumé and who was making his turf debut. Marwad finished a creditable fifth of 10 and went on developing through last fall and winter, hitting full stride when stretched out to this 11-furlong trip. His second turf stakes try came in the 11-furlong Mac Diarmida, where Marwad was four wide with no cover on the first turn and three wide the other two turns, coming with a strong outside run that he sustained to finish second. If he runs back to that race, Marwad can win the Red Smith, and that middle-distance Tapeta comeback start last month might have tightened the screws just enough.

Maple Leaf

Older fillies and mares going 1 1/4 miles on synthetic – not exactly a common condition in North America. You might think that a horse with proven merit over the surface and long distance might repeat in the Maple Leaf Stakes, but the race hasn’t had a back-to-back winner since 2004. Il Malocchio, who won the 2022 Maple Leaf, is in decent enough form to contend, but this looks like a good spot to dig deeper than Il Malocchio or 3-1 favorite Millie Girl, who never has raced beyond 1 1/16 miles.

The Maple Leaf should have a strong enough pace to reward horses that truly get the trip, and Talbeyah definitely is such a horse. This mare was a true 1 1/4-mile horse during the European phase of her career and has excuses (two troubled trips, soft going at Delaware) in her two starts since January. She hasn’t raced since July 1, but Talbeyah ran her best North American race coming back from a 7 1/2-month break and racing on the Woodbine Tapeta.

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Smart Halo

Brad Cox has Deboisblanc as the favorite and Brittany Russell has Cap Classique as the second choice in the Smart Halo, but I’m not having either of those.

Ms. Tart makes her dirt debut and I’ll guess – at the expected odds – she’ll be at least as fast as she’s been on Tapeta. Ms. Tart was stuck behind horses last out at Presque Isle and got home with a sub-12-second final furlong. This race sets up for her and Ms. Tart could get a sweet run into a strong pace.

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