Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Rebel, Honeybee, Stymie

Trainer Brad Cox has won Kentucky Derby preps the last two weeks with Hit Show in New York and Angel of Empire in New Orleans. Can he make it three weeks, three states in the Rebel at Oaklawn? Stay tuned.

Rebel

With so many faster horses entered, how, you ask, does one get all the way down to Confidence Game to upset the Rebel. Since you asked . . .

I was in New Orleans last weekend and watched Verifying work in company with Giant Mischief. Verifying looked best, especially on the gallop-out, and Giant Mischief looked like what he probably is – a one-turn horse. I’m tossing Giant Mischief, who needed some time before resuming serious training after a bad-start loss in the Springboard Mile. Verifying should be more formidable but drew the rail, and his trip could turn very tricky at a short price.

Reincarnate squeaked out a Sham Stakes win over Newgate, who came back to win the Robert Lewis with a suspiciously high speed figure, then got hurt. Reincarnate has been working right along with the talented National Treasure, starting off a length and a half behind his mate, and in his most recent drill, drawing rapidly alongside on the far turn. Note that National Treasure was under a stranglehold when Reincarnate briefly buzzed past him. Takeaway: They’re trying to teach this fellow to rate off another horse. I’m not confident that’s working, and Reincarnate could get swept into a hot pace.

Gun Pilot likely goes lower than his 8-1 morning line. When Verifying thrashed him, Gun Pilot led and was the target, but the colt learned lessons. He rated willingly behind the speed winning Feb. 4, though short chart comment, “push button,” overstates his turn of foot. Gun Pilot still holds appeal.

His stablemate Red Route One picked off pressers and stalkers who were throwing in the towel after chasing Arabian Knight’s breakneck tempo in the Southwest. He’ll run late. I like him more for the Arkansas Derby.

Confidence Game ran into the precocious Damon’s Mound in his debut before easily winning an August sprint. His development since then came in fits and starts, but his allowance win in November merits a second look. There, Confidence Game set a fast pace before turning back a sustained bid from Rocket Can. Granted, the Holy Bull was a soft race, but Rocket Can won it, and the allowance race’s fourth-place finisher, Hit Show, got a good number capturing the Withers.

Confidence Game came back from a two-month break in the Lecomte, where he raced three wide around both turns while pressing an enervating pace. He was a well-beaten third, yes, but runner-up Two Phil’s and winner Instant Coffee, both nice colts, got far better trips. Confidence Game came back with three works and I’d hope for a clean stalking trip under James Graham, who follows this horse north from New Orleans.

Honeybee

While Towhead nearly won a $500,000 race on turf and mainly was campaigned as a grass horse at age 2, she found her calling on dirt. Just as important, she appears also to have learned how to be a racehorse rather than merely a runner.

I liked the look of Towhead’s belated maiden dirt win at Churchill Downs more than the speed figure implies, but she was much better returning from a two-month break in an Oaklawn Park allowance. Towhead raced professionally inside and behind horses and raced confidently bulling her way into the clear when taken outside in upper stretch. She has long legs and a reaching stride, and everything looked much more fluid in January than it did in November. Another perfect pocket trip can be had with an alert break.

Stymie

Miles D has made but two starts the last 15 months, and he finished nowhere Jan. 28 at Gulfstream Park in his latest comeback. I suspect many will wonder if he’s done, and I hope that produces at least mild value.

I’m throwing out the Gulfstream flop. Miles D stumbled slightly at the start and wound up inside and far behind the leader, but his biggest problem was kickback. The horse threw his head in the air and paid little heed to the task at hand. He must have come out of the race in good shape to work back two weeks later, and here he has a great draw over the same racing surface where he hit a Beyer peak.