Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Private Terms, China Doll, Harrison Johnson Memorial
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Both rich stakes races Saturday at Oaklawn Park have deep, competitive fields. I really wanted to get involved, but when you find yourself during a final pass through a race strongly considering switching to a different horse than the intended target, you start to realize you have no strong single opinion.
Trainer Chris Hartman has two fast horses in the Whitmore Stakes, Edge to Edge and Tejano Twist. Hartman, for all his incredibly prolific winning, is 22-0-2-3 in graded stakes the last five years. The horse who just missed making the cut is Miles Ahead, an appealing 15-1 on the morning line.
In the Essex, Last Samurai in one sense feels like a horse you were supposed to have at 8-1 in the Razorback and to be against at one-third the price now. That said, Last Samurai’s record racing on Lasix, which he gets Saturday, suggests he can win right back. Silver Prospector is a better-priced option.
On to the actual races.
Private Terms
To be clear, I don’t think all that much of Hayes Strike, who might be trainer Kenny McPeek’s seventh-best 3-year-old – or something along those lines. But I do assume Hayes Strike will be a fair price in the Private Terms, and I think McPeek has found a good spot for this colt.
Register is the race’s fastest entrant on speed figures, but I can’t quite buy that last-start boxcar Beyer at Aqueduct, and trainer David Donk, given his comments after that one-turn win, might harbor the same distance doubts I have.
Coffeewithchris is the race’s most accomplished horse, but while he got a one-turn mile last out, the same two-turn concerns hover over this gelding. He also exits a peak performance, figures to wind up part of a strong pace, and is an easy play-against for me.
The locally based Circling the Drain is a viable alternative, despite the odd addition of blinkers following a two-length win, but isn’t Hayes Strike probably just a better horse?
The last-start synthetic experiment failed, but that race is easy to disregard because of racing surface. Two back, Hayes Road ran all right in the Gun Runner, which was dominated on the front end by Jace’s Road. Runner-up Raise Cain won the Gotham in a romp, and third place Determinedly came back to capture a good Fair Grounds allowance.
Hayes Strike’s form last fall at Churchill Downs holds up very well through Instant Coffee and Two Phil’s, and McPeek has an excellent ROI with horses racing for the first time on Lasix.
China Doll
I always give Phil D’Amato-trained European imports a long look in their North American debut, and just such a filly, Paris Secret, stands a strong chance of winning the China Doll.
Watching Paris Secret’s lone start, I’m not sure she was loving the heavy ground last October at Galway, and her trip turned demanding, especially for a first-time starter, as Paris Secret had to navigate traffic and come between horses. She handled it all with aplomb and was visually impressive in that victory.
D’Amato has the horse on a very steady work pattern, moving her from the Santa Anita training track to the main track for a pretty fast five-eighths on March 13. There’s no video of that work, but you can watch three others, including the March 5 drill in company on dirt with Comanche Country, whom Paris Secret outworked. Also important to keep in mind with those breezes: This filly’s very high action will be far better suited to turf than dirt.
Harrison E. Johnson Memorial
This looks straightforward – American Patrol can’t stand up on a wet track. His Oct. 22 race hinted at that, and the Jan. 4 Kris Kringle confirmed it. In the Kris Kringle, American Patrol was under a drive with more than a half-mile to race while going nowhere fast.
On dry tracks, the horse has been nearly unbeatable. Clearly, he has some issues that have limited his starts, but trainer Cal Lynch has shown he knows how to get this horse right, and American Patrol, after a gap in his works following the Jan. 14 breeze, has gotten onto a solid Fair Hill pattern.
Racing fresh, he’s well drawn to make great use of his tactical speed and should get a clean pressing or stalking trip at a one-turn mile configuration that really should suit the horse.
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