Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Peter Pan, San Luis Rey, Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies
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It’s a steep drop from Derby Day to the week after Derby Day, with just five graded stakes, four of them Grade 3s, carded throughout North America. I wanted to get involved in the Grade 1 Man o’ War, top race of the weekend, but couldn’t get past Warren Point, a likely underlay for Godolphin, Charlie Appleby, and Frankie Dettori.
Peter Pan
As of Thursday morning, Brad Cox hadn’t decided whether Slip Mahoney was running in the Peter Pan or the Long Branch at Monmouth Park. The owner is a New Jerseyan and Cox already has Peter Pan favorite Bishops Bay, so I’d guess Slip Mahoney goes on the road. If he stays home, he’s not without a chance to upset his shorter-priced stablemate, Bishops Bay, but I’ll take Classic Catch to fill that role.
Make no mistake: Bishops Bay is a real talent. He didn’t appear to have his mind fully on racing when he debuted Feb. 18 at Fair Grounds (at odds of 1-2!) but still bested his stablemate First Mission, the 97 Beyer his performance produced just about as high as you’ll ever see from a winter 3-year-old maiden. While First Mission went on to win a maiden route and the Lexington Stakes and now is a major player in the Preakness, Cox took a more conservative path with Bishops Bay, who seems to be less mentally mature than First Mission.
Bishops Bay did have his legs nearly taken out going into the first turn of his second start stretch-out at Fair Grounds, but he recovered to establish a good position, and beat less talented stablemate Demolition Duke by a narrow margin. Granted, Bishops Bay might have been toying with Demolition Duke; he repulsed him in the final couple strides and galloped out well in front. But, do we want to take an odds-on favorite that’s a green horse shipping for the first time to race a distance he’s not certain to handle? We do not.
The addition of blinkers could do wonders for Classic Catch, who subtly took a solid forward step running fifth in the Wood. Seeming to resent kickback, Classic Catch climbed and failed to establish position off the first turn and onto the backstretch. Still disengaged, he was ridden along just to keep up through the backstretch run, but after getting pushed about eight paths wide into the homestretch, he found stride and turned in the Wood’s fastest final furlong, 12.64, before galloping out strongly.
I expect Classic Catch to stay in closer touch Saturday but finish just as well, and if Bishops Bay is kept honest on the front end, Classic Catch can run him down.
San Luis Rey
This 12-furlong turf contest is a hodgepodge but for one real possibility: Offlee Naughty has ascended to a new performance level and as currently constituted simply is the best horse in the race.
The evidence for that largely consists of one start, the Whittingham on April 8, where Offlee Naughty overcame trouble and a slow pace to win going away over 1 1/4 miles. There’s a longer arc of improvement extending back to late last summer and through the fall, a hint that Offlee Naughty’s Whittingham breakthrough is sustainable. But I doubt the wagering public will view things quite that way.
Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies
We’re going all the way down to South Florida for a 2-year-old maiden race dressed up as a stakes.
The 11-horse field includes one winner, who drew poorly after clearing the maiden ranks on dirt, while the likely favorite, the Wesley Ward-trained Ocean Mermaid, was in Florida over the winter, went to Kentucky in the spring, and returned to Florida to post one timed workout for her debut.
Ward’s 2-year-olds were on point at Keeneland in April, and connections here might be eying a trip to Royal Ascot.
At the likely price, first-time starter Kiss holds greater appeal. Kiss is by Army Mule, whose offspring often are fast and seem to handle turf when given the chance. Kiss’s dam was a decent grass horse, and an appealing overall work pattern includes sharp three-furlong moves suggesting Kiss will come out of post 1 with guns blazing.
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