Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Pennine Ridge, Crystal Water, Mr. Steele

The theme this week, as we wind toward the end of the Triple Crown trail, is turf. Turf in Florida, turf in New York, turf in California. Let’s have at it.

Pennine Ridge

Indulge a longstanding complaint: The failure to properly show a gallop-out on camera. No one ever has expressed a downside of keeping a wide-angle pan shot on the field for, say, 12 seconds past the finish. What is the rush to go back to the final furlong of the stretch run? Is there a statute of limitations on showing that? The gallop-out obviously is not the end-all, be-all, and at times can be worthless. But often it is not! Why not let us see it?

This all comes in the context of the Kingman colt Risk Tolerance, who fetched $309,000 at an overseas yearling auction and just made his debut April 21. The horse who finished second, Coast Along, is no star, and the 83 Beyer won’t knock you out of your chair, but let’s talk about a couple parts of Risk Tolerance’s performance.

First, there appeared to be a plan in place from the beginning to hold the colt several lengths off the pace, to practice rating and responding to the rider in an actual race. Mission accomplished. I wouldn’t say Risk Tolerance switched off entirely and immediately, but he did what was asked of him.

:: Subscribe to the DRF Post Time Email Newsletter: Get the news you need to play today's races!

It took the colt a fair chunk of the homestretch to push past the pacesetting runner-up. No issue with that. Risk Tolerance still was figuring out what he was supposed to do, and eventually was getting away from the second-place finisher through the final half-furlong. Then, the gallop-out. Jockey Manny Franco flagged his mount out around the clubhouse turn, almost as though the trainer before the one-mile contest had this 1 1/8-mile stakes in mind. And even though the camera took a tight shot, focusing on the winner, he was the only one we needed to see: Great gallop-out.

Can Triple Espresso take a bit of action? Maybe? And surely “they” are going to give Legend of Time, 6-5 facing 13 at Churchill, another chance. Not here. We’re going with the gallop-out.

Crystal Water

The Chosen Vron in the Thor’s Echo sets the bar on this Cal-bred card for invulnerable favorites. Kings River Knight could wind up close to odds-on in the Crystal Water and is a much easier horse to oppose. The horse is going to be bet like that last-start (February, mind you) Beyer, 100, is standard, in great part because there are so many “1s” on the 6-year-old gelding’s past performances.

He’s won six of seven and become a dominate force facing California-breds be it short or long on turf, and long on dirt. Kings River Knight runs his grass races like a dirt horse – good speed, steady finish – and because of that, and the fact he’s not really a 100-Beyer kind of horse, I’m guessing Old Pal can run him down.

Speed figure-wise, the opposite holds true for Old Pal: His numbers underrate him. The 78 he earned winning the Snow Chief on this card a year ago was a spring 3-year-old number, and in his long-layoff comeback race earlier this month, he hardly could have gotten to a big fig while stuck far behind the leaders during the middle stages. Once clear, Old Pal smoked his final quarter-mile in 22.74; winning the Snow Chief, his last furlong was 11.34. The colt can really finish, and confidence is high he’s taking a considerable step forward. Large enough to beat the favorite? The price should be right to find out.

Mr. Steele

The public will be going for Main Event here, but I’m enamored with Win for the Money.

:: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets.

Though 5, the gelding is far from exposed on turf, where he’s made but three starts, the most recent of them going 1 1/4 miles in a Grade 1. Win for the Money is neither a 1 1/4-mile horse nor a Grade 1 performer. This kind of race, he fits.

Win for the Money has tactical speed but will be happy being placed anywhere in the first half of the field. Returning from a 5 1/2-month layoff probably does more good than harm for a horse who has fired fresh, and I liked the look of his major work for this, the April 28 grass drill.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.