Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Pegasus World Cup, Pegasus World Cup Turf, Las Virgenes
On a major Saturday of winter racing, there’s no more exciting horse running than Arabian Knight.
Bob Baffert told Daily Racing Form’s Mary Rampellini that Arabian Knight needs to show in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn he can race as effectively around two turns as he did around one. He’ll be just as effective. Expect Arabian Knight to emerge Saturday as a leading candidate for the Kentucky Derby – a race from which his trainer is banned this year.
Odds-on Arabian Knight is for viewing pleasure. There are plenty of other places to find a bet.
Pegasus World Cup
Taiba would be the horse for this race, but his winter goals lie in the Middle East. Instead, Bob Baffert sends Defunded, whose lone Grade 1 win came against a below-form Country Grammer. Defunded likely gets caught up in a fast pace and can’t win without everything going his way.
Proxy, second choice on the morning line, has improved steadily for trainer Michael Stidham, but I wonder if his Grade 1 breakthrough in the Clark last out had more to do with softer competition and a perfect trip than Proxy hitting a new level.
No quarrel with Cyberknife. Only a tough older horse, Cody’s Wish, topped him in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and Cyberknife scored his major win in the Haskell Invitational going nine furlongs with a short homestretch, the Pegasus configuration. Cyberknife could work out a decent trip stalking a quick, contested pace, but I just don’t want something like 2-1 on Cyberknife – not when another freshly turned 4-year-old can win at a more appealing price.
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White Abarrio, one of three Saffie Joseph Jr.-trained entrants, is the one for me, though there’s little hope of anything like the listed odds of 10-1.
Late last winter and early spring, White Abarrio rated a stronger prospect than Cyberknife, but after comfortably winning the Florida Derby, White Abarrio got nothing more than hot and dirty in the Kentucky Derby and wasn’t the same horse again the rest of the summer.
Back from a break Dec. 3 in the Cigar Mile, White Abarrio took the kind of step forward strongly suggesting he’s ready to hit peak form at age 4. On a day when most jockeys brazenly shunned a dead rail, White Abarrio made his move along the fence, got stuck inside the entire homestretch, and still fought tooth and nail with the top two home.
Nine furlongs works better for this colt than a one-turn mile, and he’s 4 for 4 at Gulfstream Park, his home track since he first started posting timed workouts 19 months ago. He’ll save ground in the second flight and can post a mild Pegasus upset.
Pegasus World Cup Turf
Atone finished fourth in the 2022 World Cup Turf; I think he wins it this time.
In last year’s contest, Atone raced rank in the early stages when caught inside and behind rivals. Not a huge surprise. The horse always has been a bit of a tricky ride, and you can see trainer Mike Maker during 2022 still tinkering, trying to get the most out of Atone, adding blinkers, then removing them.
Blinkers back off, I believe connections found Atone’s best lick in his 2022 finale, where he was sent to the lead and dictated terms in a high-end nine-furlong allowance. Saturday’s race lacks pace, and his sharp brace of local works suggest Atone stands ready to come out running and wire a somewhat modest bunch.
Can’t see Atone as high as his listed 10-1, especially with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, but can see him winding up a playable price.
Las Virgenes
Pride of the Nile won’t be anywhere near the 12-1 offered last month in the Starlet but ought to still be a fair-priced second choice behind Faiza in the Las Virgenes.
In the Starlet, her dirt debut, Pride of the Nile nearly fell on her face at the start; few horses bounce back from such a bad stumble to race competitively. Seemingly displeased being stuck on the rail in upper stretch, Pride of the Nile drifted out and caused more trouble for herself, but despite steadying and briefly coming off stride, she nearly fought back in deep stretch to beat odds-on Faiza.
Video of Pride of the Nile’s subsequent works show a horse in full bloom, and bettors might still be slow to realize just how good this filly is.
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