Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Pacific Classic, Del Mar Oaks, Ballston Spa
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Things have gotten, um, a little crazy in the American racing scene this summer, no? So, how about we look outside America entirely for three graded stakes plays this Saturday.
Pacific Classic
In early May 2018 the great jockey Ryan Moore returned a phone call, and I conducted an interview from a grocery store parking lot in Louisville. The subject, Mendelssohn, had shipped from Ireland for the Kentucky Derby after winning the UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse by 18 1/2 lengths. How much stock to put in that massive win margin? Moore’s reply, or something close to it: “I guess that track can tell you lies.”
Yep – Mendelssohn beat zero horses in the Derby. Moore was saying that the Meydan dirt track can really shine up the right horse on the right day. And Meydan isn’t the only such track. I’d throw Monmouth Park in the same bin.
I doubt Knightsbridge, a 10 3/4-length winner of the Monmouth Cup last out, a performance that yielded an otherworldly 122 Beyer Speed Figure, runs in the Pacific Classic like Mendelssohn did in the Derby, but I also doubt that speed figure properly rates him. He’s tasked with stretching his speed over 1 1/4 miles while breaking from post 11 in a field packed with pace players – as the favorite.
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To me, it’s a strong play-against situation, but after digging and digging, I could find no American horse to actually get behind. But I found one from Japan.
Is Finger the second coming of Forever Young? Chances are, no, but having gone through his entire career, I can’t rule it out.
I know Finger’s being viewed as a pace player, and, for sure, he has loads of route speed. His signature win, in the Tokyo Derby a couple of months ago, came with a front-running trip. But I don’t believe Finger needs the lead. Finger has stalked and pounced with success and even rallied from deep in the pack during his steadily progressive career.
His trainer recently referenced his running style, saying the focus since the Tokyo Derby was convincing Finger to feel as comfortable stalking as leading.
Finger looked a little soft, not fully formed through his January races, but returned in March from a freshening a much more physically mature animal. That development, from what I can see, has only continued. Finger stays 10 furlongs and he just might be set for the race of his life.
Del Mar Oaks
The Ireland import Kensington Lane figures to be favored after capturing the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks in her North American debut. If Kensington Lane could win the Belmont Oaks, then Ireland shipper Green Carrera can win the Del Mar Oaks.
Kensington Lane ran in three Group 3s and finished a tame fifth in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Green Carrera makes her graded stakes debut, but her overseas form compares favorably with Kensington Lane – she just ran in different types of races.
Not much of a 2-year-old, Green Carrera, a one-run closer, came back this season a much better horse. In her May 24 win, she swooped powerfully to the lead and promptly stuck her feet in the ground, either not quite physically or mentally fit to run a complete race.
But do check out her Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot, because it was excellent. Green Carrera didn’t just defeat 29 rivals, she thrashed them, rating kindly and finishing along the fence with a powerful sustained rally.
There was little chance she’d immediately take another step forward after that peak, and she didn’t last out at Killarney, but Green Carrera’s run was solid enough, and I wouldn’t be surprised if trainer Joseph O’Brien was prepping the filly for this start by sending her around a turning, left-handed course.
Ballston Spa
First thought: What is Segesta doing in this Grade 2? I think I can answer that. Using the start as a bridge to the First Lady in October at Keeneland. You know what happens in bridge races? Horses don’t run their best.
Segesta’s a vulnerable favorite, and I think Sunlit Uplands’s progressive form will be undervalued in the Ballston Spa. The 4-year-old filly has run all over Europe, including a Group 3 in Germany in her last, and I doubt a trip to America and American-style racing will trouble her.
She’s been improving steadily, too: The runner-up in the German Group 3 is not a bad filly, and Sunlit Uplands, always traveling like a winner, trounced her. She should save ground from midpack and come with a contending rally.
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