Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Nashville Derby, Del Mar Juvenile Turf, Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint
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There’s Grade 1 juvenile filly racing Saturday, but I came up with the favorite in both stakes.
I don’t completely trust Summer Starlet in the Spinaway, and while Miss Monica – perhaps the best right now in her division – is close to a cinch, she’ll be bet accordingly in the Del Mar Debutante.
Tiffany can win the Kentucky Turf Cup and Quiet Street might upset Cy Fair in the Music City, but neither of those races made the cut.
Nashville Derby
Glacius, if you saw him like I did, seemed a gift at 9-1 in the Saratoga Derby. Why can’t that gift keep giving? The odds gap between favored Causeway and Glacius might come out narrower than the morning line believes, but I’ll guess Glacius still offers some value.
The sum of Causeway’s career underwhelmed me. He’s a good horse, one who has hinted at untapped potential, but I’m not sure that potential truly exists, nor, if it does, that Causeway will fully open the tap.
Cheek pieces on, cheek pieces off, cheek pieces back on, and until he met Ancient Egypt in the King Edward he’d faced soft competition. And if Causeway had an excuse for his Grand Prix de Paris, it’s not evident.
The German horse Gostam didn’t run badly in the French Derby, though part of his problems stemmed from his own comportment – pulling too hard, not comfortable in tight quarters. Then came his atrocious German Derby, and it seems like Gostam hasn’t trained on after a promising 2-year-old campaign.
Nil Bua Gan Dua added cheek pieces last out, showed better speed, and finally broke through with a win . . . over basically nothing. I don’t rate him a contender.
Glacius throughout his career has met stronger competition than Causeway, and to me appeared the better horse all along. The final-time figure doesn’t do his Saratoga Derby justice. TimeformUS has him setting a strong early pace, yet he still went from a 24.28-second third quarter-mile to a 23.94 fourth quarter, and extrapolating his final three-sixteenths, his last quarter comes up 23.64. He punctuated that with a strong gallop-out, can lead or stalk, and will have no trouble getting the added furlong.
Del Mar Juvenile Turf
Likely favorite Shadow Nation overwhelmed rivals in his lone start, looking in that turf sprint like a future route horse, and has turned in flashy works, especially the Aug. 22 drill. But one cannot overemphasize the weakness of the maiden race he won – a race that came three months ago. Shadow Nation missed a couple of works after a minor injury. No thanks at the price.
Sure, I saw it – once Hoaxer figured out what he was doing and found stride, he finished like a freight train turf sprinting in his Aug. 27 debut. His gallop-out might not have ended until the next day. Does that translate nine days later to two-turn stakes success? Not likely.
I’m not seeing it with Observed, and I think Joel Rosario wound up on the wrong horse in Shadow Nation. Rosario also rode Off in the Corner in his lone start. I like this horse quite a bit.
Off in the Corner broke slowly but quickly got into the bridle in his turf-sprint debut. He came up the rail with plenty of juice down the backstretch, steadied twice as the rider probed forward looking for room that didn’t exist, then got really lucky coming through a gap along the fence. Even accounting for good fortune, Off in the Corner opened up impressively, and when the competition edged closer late, he not only found more, but Rosario had to rein him in during the gallop-out – Off in the Corner wanted to keep going. Post-race workouts also impressed and confidence is high this colt can get a mile.
Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint
Six-year-old Possiblemente debuted in a sprint, then ran in 27 straight route races. Five starts ago, at Turfway Park, trainer Joe Sharp cut him back to a sprint: Voila, new horse.
Possiblemente ran very well on the turnback, even better in his second sprint, and if the Turf Sprint on May 2 at Churchill had been contested at this six-furlong distance, Possiblemente wins going away.
Even capturing the Jacques Cartier, Possiblemente might have started going over the top, and his Harvey Pack, while decent and at a distance short of his best, looked similar. Sharp freshened Possiblemente awaiting this massive purse at a distance possibly ideal for an older horse who has learned a new trick – sprinting.
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