Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Music City, Mint Millions, Rosie's
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I hate that Kentucky Downs could come up wet for their big Saturday. That course is tricky under the best of circumstances, more so after rain. That shouldn’t hurt Fort Washington, who missed the cut here because he drew poorly in the Turf Cup. Here are two other Kentucky Downs plays and a wise-guy Colonial opinion.
Music City
One of the stronger stakes on the card, the Music City holds betting appeal because Shisospicy figures to be favored, and I want no part of her. Moreover, prevailing opinion probably sees Kilwin as superior on dirt. I don’t agree.
Shisospicy did run a corker winning the Mamzelle at Churchill in May, the final pop in a three-race, turf-sprint banger that led her to Royal Ascot for the Commonwealth Cup. I kind of do hold that race against Shisospicy. She contended for five furlongs and fell apart in the sixth, and that accords with the notion that Shisospicy is a very fast short sprinter who will want no part of a testing 6 1/2 furlongs on Saturday. I’d be skeptical that she even gets back to her spring form, distance aside.
Tabiti, the England shipper, is no standard European. This filly is good coming out of the gate: She breaks running and has a lot of speed. I’m not sure what led the excellent trainer Ralph Beckett to add blinkers, but the filly’s form did turn around after a poor final start at 2. The cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs will suit her, and in the one-mile Sandringham Handicap she gave a ton of weight to the pair who finished ahead of her.
Drawing inside Shisospicy and other potential pace could complicate matters, though Tabiti might prove comfortable sitting just behind the pace.
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Even so, Kilwin should run them all down if, as I think, she’s just as good on turf as dirt. Kilwin showed an explosive finish going this distance in the Untapable a year ago. Her two dirt wins, including her remarkable Test, came at seven furlongs, and those 5 1/2-furlong dashes where Shisospicy beat her were too short. At Keeneland, she had a bad draw and raced very wide around the turn. Trouble at Churchill kept her from finding stride until too late, but she came home strongly once clear. And if Kilwin comes home Saturday at 4-1, even 7-2, it’ll be great value.
Mint Millions
Brilliant Berti and Lagynos look like the two in this race. Brilliant Berti beat Lagynos three times earlier this year and won the Gun Runner over this course a year ago. I like Lagynos.
For starters, Brilliant Berti looks more like a 7-2 shot than his listed 8-1. And Lagynos had a tougher trip in all three Churchill starts where Brilliant Berti finished in front of him.
In the Opening Verse, Lagynos raced at least three wide with no cover on both turns. In the Arlington, he was taken too far behind a slow pace that Brilliant Berti set, and Lagynos finished fastest. In the Wise Dan, Lagynos had to wait for room as Brilliant Berti came zooming down the outside in the clear.
Brilliant Berti was good in the Gun Runner last year. Lagynos was great in the Tapit last week, traveling sweetly from the start, opening up without being asked, winning big without running hard. The five horses trainer Steve Asmussen has run twice at the same Kentucky Downs meet went 3-0-1. Lagynos will further enhance that mark.
Rosie’s Stakes
Trainer Wesley Ward over the last five years has run only a handful of horses at Colonial Downs. During that period he’s also debuted a handful of 2-year-olds in turf-sprint stakes. Her World back in 2021 won a Monmouth stakes in her first start.
Back up to 2019, though, and find Ward running a firster in this very race. His name was Four Wheel Drive, and he not only won the Rosie’s, he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Gypsy Art might not be Four Wheel Drive, but I think he wins Saturday.
Ward has a second runner, European export Rogue Legend, the 5-2 morning-line favorite with Kendrick Carmouche. Perhaps it means little, but it’s Victor Espinoza, on Gypsy Art, who’s been getting live stakes mounts for Ward this summer. Video of two turf workouts at Saratoga makes Gypsy Art look very live. He needs to break better than he did in the recent Keeneland gate drill. I think he will.
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