Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Mr. Prospector, Robert J. Frankel, Joe Hernandez
Final Weekend GamePlan of 2022. Some fallow periods in this space, for sure, but decent priced winners popped up regularly and the enterprise has finished the year flourishing. I sincerely hope that’s been beneficial to someone, somewhere.
Here’s hoping, also, that the rain stays minimal at Santa Anita on Friday into Saturday. As of Thursday, it looks like a showery Saturday morning and the prospect for a good turf course; anything softer and the opinions expressed below become more . . . watery.
Mr. Prospector
A dozen entrants in a seven-furlong dirt stakes race? Hard to fathom in this era, though this is not the only Gulfstream Park stakes Saturday with a deep, playable field.
I believe value abounds in the Mr. Prospector with higher-profile comeback runners Pappacap and Prevalance taking money along with the recent big-Beyer horses Sibelius, Uncle Ernie, and Seal Beach.
None among that quintet for me. There’s speed upon speed signed on here. I’m betting that the Mr. Prospector falls apart to some extent and I really like Steal Sunshine to pick up the pieces, presumably at a fair price.
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One-run closers automatically should generate skepticism racing over Gulfstream’s main track, but Steal Sunshine is a Gulfstream horse (trains on the surface and has made seven of 10 starts over it) whose career peak came in his lone start at seven furlongs and with the same sort of trip he can get Saturday. Granted, that race came against modest age-restricted competition in the Carry Back and with a favorable race flow, but Steal Sunshine is in for further positive pace dynamics, and at the end of his 3-year-old season, coming back from a freshening, he has latitude for further improvement.
Steady improvement mainly defined the arc of his 2022 campaign, which culminated in the Carry Back and a visually impressive score in the 1 1/2-turn Ellis Park Derby. Toss the Oklahoma Derby; this is a one-turn horse not suited to nine furlongs around two bends. I believe this seven-furlong trip could be even better for him than all his one-turn miles.
Found no video of the recent workouts, but on paper the breeze pattern looks very encouraging.
Robert J. Frankel
It’s possible I have a little too much of a thing for Closing Remarks, but even with that in mind, I’m going play her in the Robert J. Frankel.
Tough trips have defined this filly’s career. At some point one starts to wonder if it’s the horse rather than the circumstances leading to so much trouble, but I’m not going there yet with Closing Remarks, whom I thought was close to the equal of leading SoCal female turf horse Going Global during their 3-year-old campaigns of 2021.
My theory: The start a year ago in the American Oaks, rained onto dirt, threw Closing Remarks slightly askew during that entire form cycle, though, to be fair, she wasn’t far from top form in three subsequent turf races. Sparse video of the filly’s recent works toward this comeback, but we can watch the Dec. 27 drill, and I found it illuminating. No doubt in my mind Closing Remarks possesses the inherent quality to beat the shorter prices here, Avenue de France and England’s Rose, and I’ll guess trainer Carla Gaines has her ready to do just that.
Joe Hernandez
Most of the usual SoCal turf-sprint stakes suspects are in this appealing renewal of the Joe Hernandez, plus a pair of high-level milers, Smooth Like Strait and Hit the Road, trying something shorter. I’ve great respect for both those animals but don’t care for either of them going “down the hill” in the Saturday opener.
Whatmakessammyrun should race competitively stretching back out after a solid closing run going five furlongs at Del Mar, but he did pull a sweet trip on the way to his breakthrough performance in the Eddie D on Oct. 1.
Gregorian Chant that day simply fell too far behind, turning in the fastest final furlong to no avail, but the race flow in the Hernandez could work more in his favor and I like him to make the last, best move here under Flavien Prat.
Gregorian Chant is almost 7 and it’s fair to ask how many top races he has left, but there ought to be at least one more peak performance in the tank. He’s a horse that often has run well fresh and video of his recent breezes strongly hints at a horse still willing and capable.
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