Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Monmouth Oaks, Ontario Colleen, Osunitas

Always a Runner has elite talent, but I think to some extent she caught lightning in a bottle winning the Kentucky Oaks. Counting Stars has made the stronger impression in the post-Acorn workout video we have available, and I think she wins the most important race Saturday, the Coaching Club American Oaks, but as a very strong second choice.

Built can be beaten in the Vanderbilt, but even after serious scrutinizing no ray of light shined through that morass.

Cornucopian need not get embroiled in a Bing Crosby pace war. He’s penciled in as a serious Breeders’ Cup Sprint hope and should treat that field accordingly.

Now, we go a little under the radar.

Monmouth Oaks

At press time Thursday we still didn’t know whether Zany runs in the Coaching Club or this race. Here’s hoping for Monmouth – to drive up the price on the horse I like, Bodacious Bay.

My opinion on Zany changed dramatically in late April. Even after Percy’s Bar, who raced cold off a winter break, smoked Zany in the Ashland, I was considering plausible excuses for Zany, but about 10 days out from the Oaks, my thoughts went a different direction.

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Zany’s habit of blowing her homestretch lead change and lugging in? She did it all the time breezing, too. It wasn’t something holding her back, it’s just who she was. And why, exactly, did a Todd Pletcher-trained 2-year-old filly debut in November at Gulfstream Park, veritable hinterlands at that time of year? She wasn’t even favored facing just four foes, either.

Zany ran in the Oaks about like I thought she would. Blinkers go on, but I don’t see the filly getting any better than she’s been.

Even sans Zany, Bodacious Bay ought to offer fair odds owing to the presence of My Miss Mo, Point of Reference, and, to a lesser extent, Jumping the Gun.

Bodacious Bay somehow has caught a wet track in all three of her starts, but I have no doubt she’ll prove at least as capable on a fast track Saturday.

A sister to Royal Spa, a two-time graded stakes winner going 1 1/16 miles around two turns, Bodacious Bay always was meant to be a route horse. She ran well in her debut, merely out-quicked in that six-furlong contest before galloping out far in front. Second out, in a Churchill one-turn mile, she ran into In Scope, who has fallen off the work tab but looked graded stakes quality before she did.

Third out, first route, Bodacious Bay put it all together, running the sort of complete, focused race she hadn’t quite managed her first two starts. Liam in the Dust is no superstar, but she’s a solid high allowance-class older filly, and Bodacious Bay appeared to overwhelm her in a team workout July 17.

Ontario Colleen

Second-time starter Aretha might prove special. She did get through on the fence in her winning debut, but even accounting for a good trip delivered an impressive performance. Turf influences fill the female family, and the surface switch could even move her up. But I’m still forecasting Aretha to be an underlay and will look for a better price – Smexy.

Smexy did some good things last year in Ireland. Composing was the leading 2-year-old filly in the land when Smexy faced her in July. Draw a line through Smexy’s soft-turf flop.

Because Smexy left from an outside post, one can understand her getting caught four wide with no cover on both turns making her North American debut in the Sanibel Island. I’d quibble with the chart’s “one-paced” – Smexy subtly had a little late burst after going flat past the three-sixteenths marker.

But four wide and uncovered on both turns in the six-runner Penn Oaks – that’s harder to understand, and Smexy never had the chance to gear up for a proper run, though, once again, she sparked very late in the race.

Those trips? Cakewalks compared to Smexy’s disastrous Wild Applause. She bounced back from that fall to post an encouraging July 17 drill with high-class Imaginationthelady, and Smexy fits snugly into this spot.

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Osunitas

I’ll guess Saqqara Sands won’t go to post as short a price as she ought to be. Her top overseas form crushes this group, and workout video strongly suggests Saqqara Sands comes up to her North American debut the right way.

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