Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Megahertz, Robert B. Lewis, Forward Gal
On a solid Saturday of American racing, I wanted to get involved in Tampa turf stakes, but favorites in the Endeavour (Market Segmentation) and the Tampa Bay (Chez Pierre) look too tough and won’t offer value. Ice Orchid in the Bayakoa at Oaklawn narrowly missed the cut here; I fear she’ll be considerably lower than her 4-1 morning line. Earls Rock is a stealth contender in the Thunder Road at Santa Anita.
But on to the actual plays.
Megahertz
I have an abiding affection for Closing Remarks and touted her to win the Robert Frankel last month. But as often has been the case, usually through poor luck more than inferiority, the mare found one horse better. That was Queen Goddess, who made an easy lead in the Frankel, leaving Closing Remarks in a difficult chasing spot, and returned with a sharp score last week in Florida.
The Megahertz should unfold at a much quicker tempo – a good thing for Closing Remarks, who snugly fits this in many respects and usually comes up a fair price. I have concerns about the turnback from 1 1/8 miles to one mile. While Closing Remarks goes effectively at the trip, she’s probably best suited to slightly longer and can be vulnerable to a horse with quicker acceleration – a horse like Nadette.
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A 4-year-old French filly, Nadette was purchased by Team Valor out of a second-place debut finish (she rallied strongly up the inside behind a more experienced and decent winner, galloped out far in front). She won well enough over nine furlongs, asserting herself very late, in the Prix Finlande last May, then found herself leading the French Oaks, which did not end well for Nadette. I give the filly a pass for that performance, the wrong trip over the wrong distance.
Nadette can be somewhat tricky as she unwinds for her final kick; in a few French starts, she shifted about just as she was gearing up. Something similar happened in her North American debut, where she switched back to the “wrong” lead and jinked inward interrupting her stretch run, perhaps costing her a chance to catch victorious Rhea Moon in the Autumn Miss Stakes.
Rhea Moon returned to win the Grade 1 American Oaks, while Nadette worked once shortly after the Autumn Miss, then not again until January. Video of recent team workouts encourages the notion the filly sits on improvement in her second American race – and she doesn’t need to improve much to win at a fair price.
Robert B. Lewis
A four-horse field obviously carries limitations, but I prefer the likely third choice in the Lewis, the maiden Worcester, at something like 3-1.
While the jury still is out regarding how far likely favorite Arabian Lion and second choice Newgate want to run, Worcester in his third start finally gets a chance to do what he wants – race around two turns.
He had no early speed in his debut but turned in a flashy final furlong before quickly galloping out in front of victorious Faustin, who is good. And Worcester much more quickly got into his second start, finishing with strong energy while closing late ground on Hejazi, who’s even better than Faustin.
Ultimately, it will be Bob Baffert who dictates race strategy, since he trains all four runners, but I envision Worcester slotting in a few lengths off the pace and running down whatever stablemates are in front of him.
Forward Gal
Undervalued Asset holds appeal greater than her modest debut Beyer Speed Figure. Racing over a dead surface, Undervalued Asset thumped a soft bunch, but did so with an eye-catching turn of foot and despite racing somewhat greenly through midstretch. She has major upside, but my guess is she’s bet below a fair price, though the presence of Atomically, whom I don’t care for, boosts the value on other players.
I’ll take Positano Sunset to get the jump on Undervalued Asset from a favorable outside draw and win the Forward Gal. The filly, like many Ian Wilkes trainees, used her debut as a learning experience. Second time out, showing much more, she had a tougher trip than the talented Julia Shining, who beat her in a Keeneland maiden. Positano Sunset did everything right in her third-start maiden win, and those robust six-furlong breeze times leading into this are unlike the typical Wilkes workout pattern – in a good way.
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