Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Lexington, Jenny Wiley, Count Fleet
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Longshot Mendelssohns March wasn’t good enough in the Blue Grass, mid-priced Slip Mahoney got wiped out on the first turn of the Wood, and Geaux Rocket Ride was scratched sick from the Santa Anita Derby. The three pushes in this space one week ago did not come through, but as they say lining up behind the betting windows, “That’s why God created the next race.”
Lexington
I assume Disarm will be favored here. He didn’t get much of a trip in the Louisiana Derby but made something out of little and finished well behind slow-paced leader Kingsbarns. Disarm needed his comeback run two back at Oaklawn and sharply won a good maiden race last summer at Saratoga. He’s very talented and the only Lexington entrant who could get into the Kentucky Derby.
Disarm is only co-second choice on the line at 7-2; if he’s that price, he’s fair value. I don’t care for the other 7-2 shot Arabian Lion, poorly drawn in post 11 and more sprinter-miler than route horse, though 4-1 Empirestrikesfast holds appeal. Debuting, he ran extremely well fighting past Dreamlike, who was beaten two noses in the Wood Memorial last Saturday.
I’m siding with First Mission, thinking that he will offer a somewhat better price than the listed 3-1. This Godolphin homebred debuted in the strongest maiden race of the Fair Grounds meet and gave fellow Brad Cox-trained first-timer Bishops Bay all he wanted. Bishops Bay, more naturally suited to sprints than First Mission, returned with a sharp route score, and First Mission might have run even better routing in his second start.
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After his stall door popped open and was closed again by the gate crew, First Mission stumbled leaving the gate but recovered to show some controlled two-turn pace, the kind of easy-going speed one loves to see in a young horse. After cruising past the leader, who set a quicker-than-par pace, First Mission really kicked into gear when asked for just a bit at the three-sixteenths pole. The two behind him at the wire might not be bad, and First Mission galloped out like he was looking for more distance, more competition.
If the pace turns too fast here, he’ll rate behind, and First Mission has the gears and turn-running ability to excel at this short-stretch 1 1/16-mile configuration.
Jenny Wiley
No doubt, In Italian is the best horse in the Jenny Wiley, and she’s likely to win if things go her way. She ran two great races over this course last fall and comes into 2023 the best female grass horse in North America. And, if you wanted to tell me that a touch of value could accrue to the race’s most likely winner because In the Moonlight, who is not the same class as In Italian, will take some action shipping for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, I wouldn’t argue.
Yet the best horse in a race loses regularly. In Italian probably will be even money making her first start in five months. She’ll want to show pace and is drawn inside Freedom Speaks, who stretches out from sprints and surely will go forward. If In Italian is taken behind Freedom Speaks, the capable Queen Goddess might lock her into that spot.
White Frost lost to In Italian’s decidedly inferior stablemate Faith in Humanity last out only because she got a really, really poor trip, racing much too far back while Faith in Humanity set a slow pace. White Frost ran her final quarter-mile in 22.35 seconds after showing in her previous race she’d come back from an extended layoff a better horse.
She gets a rider switch to Frankie Dettori, who can work out a favorable journey despite this outside draw, and White Frost is likely to be a much higher price than merited.
Count Fleet
Strobe, his morning line aside, figures to be favored in a speed-packed renewal of the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. He’s been very impressive beating overmatched foes in short fields. I wonder how he’ll respond to a wicked pace and better competition. Morning-line favorite Tejano Twist is overdue for regression, and I’ll gladly take him on.
Skelly, razor sharp in the last month, is the now horse who, unlike Strobe, has shown he likes the Oaklawn surface. His penultimate furlong in 11.99 last out suggests that even with pace pressure, Skelly might break this race open at the three-sixteenths pole.
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