Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Santa Anita Sprint Championship, Selima

It’s Arc weekend, and the Longchamp course, typically sodden this time of year, looks surprisingly good for Sunday’s renewal of one of the world’s great races. Fantastic Moon is the pick over that kind of ground.

All the rain that’s supposed to be in Paris has decided to stay in America. A late week deluge left Aqueduct drenched, forcing the postponement of Saturday's card to Sunday, and there’s even a chance of a slightly wet Saturday at Santa Anita. Out of all this water we’ll try to fish a winner or two.

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic

Rebel’s Romance figures to be heavily favored here in a race that was moved from Saturday to Sunday at Aqueduct. He was 1-2 in the Bowling Green at Saratoga, and clipping heels and losing his jockey hardly can be blamed on the horse himself. Still, I wouldn’t say Rebel’s Romance was moving like a sure winner when the trouble befell him, and he ran flat as a pancake in the Sheema Classic, his only other 2023 start. The horse hit sky-high form late in 2022 but one wonders if he, like his stable in general, is the same this year as last.

Moreover, Rebel’s Romance is a top-of-the-ground horse, a massive beast who cannot show his best on soft going, and the favorite may have to overcome a course he could dislike.

On firmer footing, Stone Age would have been the play to beat Rebel’s Romance, but I can’t forecast a return to his best form on the sort of turf we can expect Sunday. His stablemate, Adhamo, was set to improve in his second start this year, but he very much wants things firmer.

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War Like Goddess does all right with give in the ground. There’s a jockey change here, and I know her connections give her excuses for her last two defeats, but I wonder if the mare has come back at age 6 the way she went out at 5.

There’s one horse in the Joe Hirsch proven to excel on softer surfaces, and Soldier Rising absolutely is good enough to make the most of favorable circumstances. Soldier Rising has struggled to get into the win column but lost all chance dodging Rebel’s Romance’s fallen jockey in the Bowling Green and ran into a buzzsaw performance from Bolshoi Ballet in the Sword Dancer. He had trouble in this race a year ago and if he can get a better trip Sunday this could be the day.

Santa Anita Sprint Championship

I’m drawing a line through Fort Bragg’s slop flop last out in the Allen Jerkens and looking for a major rebound here, even if Santa Anita does get some rain.

While Fort Bragg’s stablemate Arabian Lion got the flashier Beyer Speed Figure in a more important race this summer in New York, I’ll take Fort Bragg’s 106 in the Grade 3 Dwyer over Arabian Lion’s 109 in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. In the Dwyer, Fort Bragg managed to best Saudi Crown, who since has emerged as one of the top few 3-year-olds in the country with a strong, close second to an in-form Forte in the Jim Dandy and a victory in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Fort Bragg has been treated as a route prospect, but watching his last two one-turn miles one might posit a cut back to six furlongs will suit the horse. There’s ample pace signed on – including Fort Bragg’s very fast stablemate Speed Boat Beach – and look for an intemperate tempo to lead to a rousing finale from a fast-closing Fort Bragg.

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Selima

Carmelina eked out a Virginia-restricted stakes win at Colonial last out after fading off a solid pace in the Schuylerville, but even though the filly was a sharp debut winner in a short dirt sprint, there might be a turf route horse waiting to come out here.

Carmelina’s sire, Maximus Mischief, has hit a home run with his first crop of runners this year, and while they are fast and precocious, there isn’t any reason they can’t run longer. Carmelina is the first foal to race from the mare Complete St., who excelled in turf routes during a restricted-stakes-class career.

Carmelina, off a sharp recent work, will lead the Selima into the homestretch and might not come back.

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