Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Jenny Wiley, Apple Blossom, Giant's Causeway

The less said about the last two Saturdays – at least in terms of this exercise – the better. Chin up, sun coming out at Keeneland, Apple Blossom Day in Hot Springs. Forward.

Jenny Wiley

Keeneland was sloppy and off turf Wednesday and Thursday, and before the rain tapers off Friday, another half-inch or so could fall. The sand-based Keeneland course doesn’t really get soft, but it could be yielding and tricky.

There is one known commodity on soft going who runs in the Jenny Wiley, Elusive Princess, who was Group 1-placed over a soft course in France and an easy winner of her North American debut at sodden Saratoga. Getting her ground puts Elusive Princess in play, but at 1 1/16 miles, the race still is too short.

I don’t care for English Rose here and even less on a wet course, and Didia, of whom I’m a fan, is unlikely to thrive in these conditions.

We’ve buried the lead: The Jenny Wiley has been Chad Brown’s playground. Brown plans to run all four of his entrants, and while it’s hard to find Beaute Cachee, the other three merit attention.

Fluffy Socks has excuses from her last four races. At some point, you start to wonder if a horse isn’t making her own luck.

:: Get the Inside Track with the FREE DRF Morning Line Email Newsletter. Subscribe now.

How will Gina Romantica be played? She was 11-1 winning the First Lady over this course last fall and 9-2 when winning the 2022 QE II. The speed figures this 5-year-old mare put up ending her 2023 campaign far exceeded anything previous. She’s only run over firm courses, and I wouldn’t want her as the favorite.

Surge Capacity is the play. I didn’t appreciate the scope of this filly’s talent until going back through her five races. She won the Lake George in just her second start racing over yielding ground, and Surge Capacity’s superiority exceeded the bare margin of victory. She traveled decently in that race, pulling a bit too hard, but in the Lake Placid she was off the bridle and ridden along down the backstretch, just not on her game. Her two subsequent starts say she can win the Jenny Wiley.

Surge Capacity, given her trip from the quarter pole home, had no business winning the Valley View. That was her best finishing kick until the Matriarch, where she squeezed through a narrow opening and went supernova the final half-furlong. The filly can be placed about anywhere and has been in many tight, difficult spots that don’t seem to bother her – and she just might be the right Chad.

Apple Blossom Handicap

Adare Manor was beaten the better part of 20 lengths the last time she ventured outside California, and her superior speed figures have come with favorable trips in short fields. As the 9-5 Apple Blossom favorite, she adds value to other contenders.

Wet Paint, 3-1 second choice on the line, is even more vulnerable. She last was seen finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, one place behind Adare Manor, and Taxed did not improve much from the Fantasy Stakes in April through the end of the year.

Wet Paint got on a strong run at Oaklawn a year ago, but now is back from a winter break. She might need a race, might not be much better at 4 than she was at 3, and definitely needs pace assistance.

Two days before your income taxes come due, Taxed is set for a breakout performance.

When Wet Paint beat Taxed in the Fantasy, Wet Paint had hit peak form while Taxed still was finding herself, and I’d say Taxed’s next race, in the Black-Eyed Susan, was about as good as anything Wet Paint put up in 2023. Taxed had an impossible trip in the Indiana Oaks and then went over the top.

No sprinter, Taxed was a sharp winner of her six-furlong comeback start, where she was asked to gallop out strongly around the turn and did so. Her work pattern since that race looks excellent. Saturday is Taxed Day at Oaklawn.

:: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets.

Giant’s Causeway

Bling has campaigned mainly as a miler, but I wonder if turf sprints aren’t her thing. She spotted the field close to 10 lengths rearing at the break of the Music City and then really flew home as a course and distance allowance winner last fall at Keeneland. I don’t think a wet course slows her down in her first start in four months. Bling can flash home a fair-priced winner.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.