Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial, Tinsel, and Alex M. Robb

Weekend GamePlan turned in a perfect paper Dec. 10 after Ice Orchid was scratched from the Mistletoe, Junipermarshmallow won the Wait a While at a good price, and Faiza the Starlet at an awful price. Faiza had to work like mad to beat 12-1 shot Pride of the Nile at Los Alamitos, and if you think she was underlaid at 1-2, wait until you see Arabian Lion’s price Saturday in the five-horse Los Alamitos Futurity.

The Futurity is one of two nominal Kentucky Derby preps Saturday along with the Springboard Mile at Remington, where the colt who nipped Arabian Lion last month at Keeneland, Giant Mischief, makes his two-turn debut as the likely Springboard favorite. Giant Mischief comes with a work pattern notably light for a Brad Cox-trained horse and is no sure thing to stretch out. He’s not the only vulnerable Cox-trained favorite this weekend in Oklahoma.

Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial

I expect Caddo River, Florent Geroux riding for Cox, will be a defined favorite making his first start since a fading sixth-place finish more than five months ago in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster. I don’t expect him to win.

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Caddo River doesn’t have to lead, but he wants to race close and figures to be fresh returning from a layoff. He’s drawn widest, in post 9, with three other early pace players lined up inside him. Things might not turn out well, trip-wise – and is Caddo River all that, anyway? He peaked before the Foster, getting two perfect trips in relatively soft company and feels like a distinct underlay.

I’m betting Rated R Superstar – but first we need to sing his praises. Rated R Superstar is among the top-earning 9-year-old Thoroughbreds ever. At 9, John Henry was 1984 Horse of the Year and The Tin Man had an epic 9-year-old campaign in 2007. Rated R Superstar is no Grade 1 performer but has banked $540,326. That’s more than $300,000 greater than the next-highest 9-year-old earner this year, and only one other 9-year-old since 2007, Cloudy’s Knight in 2009, topped $400,000 in annual earnings.

Rated R Superstar should add the winner’s share of this purse to his total. His most recent start, the Remington Green, a Sept. 25 grass race, easily can be tossed; this is no turf horse. Two races ago, Rated R Superstar rallied into a slow pace and ran down high-level performer Flash of Mischief going 1 1/8 miles. The gelding often has been campaigned like longer distances are his friend, but his very best performances come in 1 1/16-mile races with an honest pace – like this one.

Tinsel

Kenny McPeek was Rated R Superstar’s first trainer, and at Oaklawn Park I’m tabbing the McPeek-trained King Fury to win the Tinsel.

Very interested to see what Run Classic, likely the brightest Tinsel talent, can do going as far as 1 1/8 miles. Much less interested in taking anything close to odds as short as the 8-5 morning line. Run Classic gets a pass for losing his most recent start, when he got sucked into a speed duel that completely enervated his pace rival. I’m concerned something similar could happen again here, with Hozier and Bal Harbour likely to show speed, and the guess is Run Classic tops out as a one-turn miler.

Dynamics were all wrong for King Fury last out in the Fayette, a false-paced race that didn’t set up for him in the least. Three back, making a long-layoff comeback, he again was pace-disadvantaged, and while improving next out in the Lukas Classic, King Fury simply ran into two superior rivals. There aren’t any of those in the Tinsel, and King Fury’s win price should be fair.

Alex M. Robb

Not quite sure what price he’ll be, but pretty sure Barese will win this New York-bred race cutting back from a series of 1 1/8-mile starts to a one-turn mile.

While 3-year-old Barese makes his 10th start this year, the races have been spread out and he’s just in the third outing this form cycle. The nine-furlong tries had everything to do with rich New York-bred opportunities, less to do with Barese’s preferred trip. There’s evidence, going back to his course-and-distance win last winter in the Gander, that Barese’s best lick comes closing into a solid pace around one turn, just the setup he’s likely to get Saturday.

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