Early speed – that’s what American racing, especially on dirt, is all about. We’ve got three plausibly live front-runners in Saturday stakes races. Let’s see if they can press their pace advantage. Jeff Ruby Steaks Eisenhower was president the last time Richard Mandella ran a horse at Turfway Park. Okay, that’s an exaggeration. But 2002 feels like so long ago it might as well be 1960, and 2002 is the last time Mandella had a starter at the Northern Kentucky track. He’s 2-1-0 from seven Turfway starters dating to 1994. So why, now, does Mandella send Medici for the Jeff Ruby? Presumably it’s not because of an abiding interest in Italian Renaissance history. Turfway sits in Florence, Ky., and the Medici banking dynasty dominated 15th to 18th century Florence, Italy. Medici, the Into Mischief colt in question, has not yet dominated anything. He has, in fact, a mere maiden win from six starts. Speaking of ancient history, Mandella, like trainers of yore, does not fear losing races to help develop a talented colt. And so it has gone with Medici. :: DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby day. No blinkers in a very poor dirt-sprint debut. Blinkers for a vastly improved second start, where Medici took a three-length lead to the stretch call, then stuck his toes in the ground. The horse who ran him down, Stark Contrast, is the morning-line Ruby favorite. Blinkers off again the next race, and Medici took a step back. Blinkers back on and a tactical experiment, taking Medici off the pace. He ran well in that loaded Nov. 30 Del Mar mile, where he was moved prematurely and very wide on the far turn. Finally, fifth out, a maiden win, and while Medici had to work for it, Mandella finally had gotten the colt right. Jumped into the Pasadena Stakes on Feb. 22, Medici set the pace and held well for second, beaten a nose. Medici got outkicked in that one-mile contest because he doesn’t have a miler’s turn of foot. His dam, trained by Mandella, was a Grade 1 winner over 1 1/4 miles. Medici wants to gallop along on the lead over a true distance of ground, and that’s what he’ll do Saturday. To prepare him for that, Mandella worked Medici six furlongs March 14 with the high-class older dirt horse Subsanador. Subsanador went off some eight lengths behind Medici before ranging alongside in upper stretch. The idea was to push Medici to the wire, and the younger horse responded gamely. No Subsanadors in the Ruby. They might not catch this colt. Louisiana Derby Chip Honcho did not enjoy the experience, tossing his head and pulling too hard, but he assented to being hard held off the lead in the Gun Runner in December and the Lecomte in January. But why fight the colt? If Chip Honcho wants to lead, let him lead. That’s exactly what new jockey Luis Saez did in the Risen Star, and voila – Chip Honcho hit a much higher level than many thought he had in him. Can he do it again over another half-furlong? Absolutely, and this time, there will be no horse like undefeated Risen Star winner Paladin coming at him. Don’t hold the Lecomte against Chip Honcho. He ran as well as anyone in that race given the circumstances of his fourth-place finish. And look at this colt’s post-Risen Star work pattern. Clearly, he is thriving. Clearly, he will be dead fit for this. And if Chip Honcho shakes loose on a track favoring front-runners, they won’t catch this colt. Essex Handicap Did a pretty deep dive into longshot Mackman in the Essex. The more I looked, the more I liked. Okay, what kind of pace will he get to run at? Surely there’s someone to keep Accelerize from stealing off to a clear, early lead. There is not. :: Live racing action at Oaklawn Park! DRF Past Performances and Picks are available now. Accelerize is the lone speed, primed to run even better than he did in two solid Fair Grounds starts. Todd Pletcher adds blinkers, and Accelerize, thumped by the great-working Life and Times in breezes earlier this winter, nearly held his own breezing in blinkers with him March 14. I pulled up Pletcher’s blinkers-on five-year record in this very specific circumstance: Older horses, dirt routes, odds between 2-1 and 5-1. The stat is 4-3-1-0. Skippylongstocking always regresses following a peak race. Accelerize is making the Essex lead, and I don’t think they’ll catch him. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.