Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Hollywood Derby, Go for Wand, Maryland Juvenile Fillies

We’d love to highlight the richest North American race between the Breeders’ Cup and the Pegasus World Cup, the $750,000 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, but that’s not happening. Seven were entered, six at most will start, and two are trained (all due respect) by Norman “Lynn” Cash. That is not a vintage Cigar Mile, and the two favorites, Zandon and Mind Control, look formidable.

Julia Shining’s most unusual debut produced a modest 71 Beyer Speed Figure, and she’s a favorite I wanted to oppose in the Demoiselle, but between the way she leveled off late, looking like a route horse in waiting, and the softness of the competition here, that’s also a no-play. Two-year-old stakes at Woodbine look chalky, while those at Tampa look . . . confusing.

On to the task at hand.

Hollywood Derby

This came up a real brain-crusher, and perhaps I’m pushing a play here because I devoted so much time to the race, but there are reasons to give the Hollywood Derby careful consideration. For me, that starts with Wit, the likely favorite, whom I don’t care for. Didn’t care for him going one mile last out at Keeneland, and like him even less going 1 1/8 miles.

Celestial City has improved with blinkers but got an absolutely dream run winning the Hill Prince over Mackinnon and Grand Sonata, neither of whom would figure in this spot. Trainer Shug McGaughey has a total of one Southern California starter the last five years.

:: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match and FREE Formulator PPs! Join DRF Bets.

Cabo Spirit did finish with aplomb winning the Twilight Derby, though he got a brilliant ride from Joe Bravo in so doing, while the horse he nipped, Speaking Scout, had a great trip pressing a dawdling pace while out in the clear. The one with compromising stretch trouble in that race, Handy Dandy, came back two weeks later over the Del Mar course and won the restricted Let It Ride despite breaking through the gate pre-start.

Still, I prefer Let It Ride runner-up Script, who was going best at the finish and galloped out in front while making just the second turf start of his career. Script didn’t have a clean run winning his turf debut at Keeneland in October, either, and has plenty of upside, though I wonder about the jockey change since Script appears somewhat tricky to ride.

But I’m digging another level and many odds points deeper to play Clutch Hitter, who somehow lost the Let It Ride by only 1 1/4 lengths while never really getting a chance to run. Clutch Hitter broke slowly from the rail and got stuck inside and behind horses for the first time in his career; hard to say who seemed more uncomfortable with that position, horse or rider. There was zero rhythm to his journey, and Clutch Hitter, who had run, found himself blocked behind a wall of rivals literally the entire stretch run.

I don’t know why he took a step back in his second grass race, but his maiden win over the Del Mar course was visually impressive and revealed the colt has the speed to work out a perfect pressing trip from this draw and the scope to negotiate 1 1/8 miles.

Go for Wand

First pass through the Go for Wand: “Wow, there’s a lot of speed in here!” Third pass through: “You know, there’s actually not that much pace!”

:: Get Daily Racing Form Past Performances – the exclusive home of Beyer Speed Figures

I really like Bank Sting here, and if the 4-1 morning line comes close to holding, that’d be great value. At 6 1/2 furlongs, the Oct. 30 Iroquois simply was too short for Bank Sting, who in any case was returning from a four-month layoff and likely merely prepping for this start.

This filly has a lot of fight to her, loves Aqueduct, excels at a one-turn mile, and is in line for a great trip from this outside post. This past March, Go for Wand morning-line favorite Battle Bling got the run of the race and still couldn’t run down Bank Sting.

Maryland Juvenile Fillies

We can see Malibu Moonshine’s work pattern has holes, and DRF’s Dan Illman reported the filly missed an intended start because she got sick. But I don’t care.

Malibu Moonshine got in two recent drills five days apart, and while her debut win produced a modest Beyer Speed Figure, the filly was visually impressive and really took off the final furlong when finally changing leads. There’s rain in the Laurel forecast, and we already know this horse handles a wet track.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.