Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Hill Prince, Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship, Cary Grant

There’s rain forecast at both Aqueduct and Del Mar, perhaps not enough to spoil some appealing grass races, and coast to coast, turf and dirt, we’re forecasting upsets on this Saturday of American stakes racing.

Hill Prince

It’s hard to knock Integration, and I’m not here to do that. Integration really caught the eye in his winning Colonial Downs debut, and with an 11.76-second final furlong, he ran right past the odds-on Chad Brown-trained favorite, Program Trading, in the Virginia Derby. The Virginia Derby was Sept. 9, but Integration was back on the work tab not long after and from the appearance of his breeze pattern hasn’t missed a beat.

A few things to consider. Integration makes his first start away from Colonial, and the rattling-fast late-summer grass course over which he raced there wasn’t anything like the autumnal turf he’ll encounter Saturday, particularly if the course does take some rain. Program Trading hasn’t run back since the Virginia Derby, and it’s likely his form flattened out following a very strong performance five weeks earlier in the Saratoga Derby Invitational. Integration in Virginia was the 6-1 value. Here, he’s the strong favorite and likely no value at all.

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Integration took down the odds-on, Brown-trained favorite last time, but here a Brown-trained horse can upset heavily favored Integration. Brown runs three. Faraday has been fine and I’m Very Busy was very good last out, but I’m fairly certain Equitize is the especially live Hill Prince chance.

Equitize has made but one start, that coming in March at Tampa Bay. Bet to even money in a maiden turf route, Equitize cozied in behind the pace while saving ground before coming out sharply – perhaps trying to blow the turn – past the half-mile pole. Racing somewhat awkwardly around the bend, he still gained ground on the leader, whom he engaged and passed in upper stretch while failing to change leads, finally switching at the sixteenth pole, drawing clear to the finish, then galloping out far in front like a colt who was just getting warmed up.

Mr. Brown knows how to read a condition book. He could have found a first-level allowance for Equitize but picked out a Grade 2. Brown for years has trained many of the best grass prospects in North America. There’s no doubt he knows where these horses fit and apparently believes Equitize fits with these horses. At the expected price, I can get behind that belief, too.

Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship

Wit sparked to life when he was switched from dirt to turf miles during the summer of 2022, but even while Wit performed well in two-turn turf races, they often seemed like a slog for the horse. Do recall that Wit, as a 2-year-old, won the Grade 3 Sanford over six furlongs on dirt by eight lengths. I think there’s a good turf sprinter waiting to emerge here, and Wit, barring a surface switch, gets his first shot here in a grass sprint.

Connections tried to run him in such a race last month only to be rained off, but they kept Wit in that main-track contest to help move him forward to this spot. The pace factors in this race are numerous and serious, and Wit should get the setup he needs, perhaps over a somewhat laboring course that will reward his stamina.

Cary Grant

The Chosen Vron is the 800-pound gorilla in the Cary Grant but looks from this perspective like an odds-on favorite to play against. Never in his career has The Chosen Vron run back on such short rest as in the Cary Grant, which comes a mere two weeks after he ran hard in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. His trainer told Daily Racing Form there was no other suitable race for The Chosen Vron until January and that he didn’t want to wait so long to run the horse.

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That makes the Cary Grant a classic “afterthought” race. Those usually end badly for horses coming out of the Breeders’ Cup. Fast Draw Munnings can give the favorite all he wants at something like seven times the win odds. This lightly raced 4-year-old showed plenty of ability at ages 2 and 3, then showed he’d matured and improved with a sharp Del Mar allowance win in a two-turn mile this summer. At Los Al, he ran into razor-sharp Kings River Knight, and Fast Draw Munnings since has been freshened for this cutback to seven furlongs that he might really like.

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