Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Highlander, Fleur de Lis, Marine

Churchill Downs’s closing weekend lies at hand, and it’s Los Alamitos Derby time, which means the coastal boutique meets must be right around the corner. For now, we make do with Louisville and Toronto.

Highlander

One finds all sorts of useful tidbits setting DRF Formulator to lifetime past performances and looking back through the entire career of an older horse like Oceanic.

The 7-year-old wasn’t useless when he began racing in 2020, but after four losses, he ran for a $50,000 maiden-claiming tag, and when that failed, for $30,000.

A seventh start switch to grass revealed Oceanic as a turf sprinter, and upon finding his niche, Oceanic ran through his conditions in decent enough time. In his fourth stakes try, in September 2022, Oceanic hit another level, winning the Da Hoss at Colonial with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, doubling up that number with a good second at Keeneland behind the excellent Golden Pal.

Oceanic hit his 2023 peak when shipped to Woodbine for – the Highlander Stakes. Lucky Score nipped him for the win after Oceanic stumbled significantly one stride into the race, Lucky Stride getting a cleaner run through the homestretch, Oceanic quickly galloping out in front.

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Oceanic forcefully demonstrated in April he had returned for a 2024 campaign the same horse he’d been last year, roaring past Just Might (a recent Churchill turf-sprint winner with a 94 Beyer) capturing a high-end Keeneland turf-sprint allowance. Then trainer Jordan Blair did something smart: He held fire with Oceanic, training the gelding into the race where he’d run his best a year ago.

Back to those aging past performance lines. Oceanic has evolved into a closing sprinter, but in the Da Hoss and several previous starts, the horse showed plenty of early speed, which means a decided lack of pace in this Highlander need not hurt his chances.

If they go slow up front, Oceanic can stalk the pace, and one gets the strong sense that the gelding better suits this longer six-furlong distance than the standard short turf sprints where he usually lands. The morning-line odds, 4-1, would be fair enough.

Fleur de Lis

Shotgun Hottie gets the call in the Fleur de Lis despite the expectation her win odds wind up lower than the listed 4-1, perhaps as little as 5-2.

That’s fine, because Shotgun Hottie, not Scylla, should be favored. We’re not harshly anti-Scylla, but the filly hasn’t run especially fast. And while she notched her first two-turn win in the Shawnee, one shouldn’t be entirely convinced yet that she really wants to route at all, much less travel this 1 1/8-mile distance.

Scylla has a presence to her, and with just six starts remains loaded with potential, but potential rather than actual accomplishment is supposed to be baked into a horse’s price. Scylla will be bet like she’s already answered lingering questions.

Shotgun Hottie just hit a career top going nine furlongs, and her performance in the duPont didn’t come out of the blue. Shotgun Hottie, slowly developing along a similar pattern, was just as fast last summer, upsetting Grade 1-class Search Results in the Molly Pitcher.

Her work pattern since returning to Kentucky from Baltimore jumps off the page, and in a paceless race Shotgun Hottie will be forwardly placed, if not on the lead. Paco Lopez gives up a Saturday worth of Monmouth mounts for this. The mare will make it worth his while.

Marine

They called the Churchill turf firm for the June 1 Audubon, and maybe it played so, but watching the ground break apart and fly up during the race, it’s easy to see how some horses spun their wheels over it – Cameo Appearance among them.

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The colt failed to run back in the Audubon to a sharp American debut at Keeneland, but he can do so at a better price in the Marine.

For whatever it’s worth – and it may be worth something – Cameo Appearance gets Lasix again Saturday after racing without it at Churchill. And the move from turf to Tapeta, the surface over which he trains at Turfway, can’t be a bad thing.

Cameo Appearance’s lone overseas start came on an all-weather track, and despite a slow start and a challenging trip, the colt came running strongly up the inside and just missed beating a decent Aidan O’Brien-trained rival.

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