Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Harlan's Holiday, Suwannee River, and Poinsettia

The prospect of rain forcing turf races onto dirt Saturday at Santa Anita takes at least one appealing race out of Weekend GamePlan consideration, while a paucity of positive vibes in two stakes at Laurel and simply a paucity of entrants in the Gravesend at Aqueduct eliminates those three stakes. That leaves us at Gulfstream, which has several playable fields, and Oaklawn, where a touch of value might be unearthed in their feature.

Harlan’s Holiday

One supposes that given the lack of credentialed opponents O’Connor really will be the favorite in the Harlan’s Holiday, but the guess is he won’t be bet below fair value.

I wanted to believe some in Dubyuhnell’s most recent outing at Keeneland, but noting he raced on Lasix for the first time while reversing atrocious form from his previous two starts raises a red flag given the Lasix prohibition here.

Ny Traffic holds a hint of appeal stretching back out to two turns in his third post-layoff run, but he’s going to the front and will either have to outsprint Octane to the lead or get stuck in a claustrophobic spot along the fence with several pressing and stalking types lined up outside him.

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As for O’Connor, Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch reported that the Chilean-bred horse had surgery this past summer to repair an airway problem. That appears to have helped, and O’Connor, like many horses, might have needed the better part of a year to entirely adapt to life in the Northern Hemisphere after spending his first five years in Chile. In any case, he finished with excellent energy at short-stretch Charles Town, lost his Woodward chance at the start, and was a game winner of the Fayette over Il Miracolo, who returned with a competitive third in the Clark. O’Connor should stalk the pace while keeping the leaders in range and ran well over this 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream trip in his North American debut last winter.

Suwannee River

Even with Saffron Moon expected to be scratched, it seems implausible Fast as Flight will be as short as her 5-2 morning line in this bulky field. Here’s hoping she’s not, because Fast as Flight looks very live.

This late-developing 5-year-old began her ascent to peak form last winter at Gulfstream and continued to improve all the way into July. Granted, she got a favorable trip over a rain-soaked course at Ellis Park on July 2, but I still give her credit for beating White Frost, who, at her best, would be favored here.

Fast as Flight had run well on the Gulfstream Tapeta two winters ago, but I won’t overreact to her lesser Dec. 3 comeback start over that surface. The race surely was, as much as anything, a stepping-stone to this graded stakes, and Fast as Flight ran better than it appears on paper. She suffered serious ground loss on both turns in a race run at a muddling pace and subtly kicked into gear in the final furlong before galloping out encouragingly. She has ample positional pace to get over from an outside draw into a good spot with cover before the first turn, and one can expect a jump back to her higher-level form.

Poinsettia

Steve Asmussen trains the two favorites here, and both look vulnerable. Topsy, the more accomplished of the pair, has been racing without a break since January. She hit a form trough over the summer, and the two recent bounce-back performances might be the best she has to offer at this stage of her form cycle. As for High Class, her price will be a casualty of recency bias: The filly’s most recent start was far better than the seven that preceded it.

I’m the Boss of Me clearly looks like the value in the race. She’s fast enough to win, has a good Oaklawn record, and will be undervalued since her form tailed off at the end of her last cycle and because she hasn’t raced since July.

Note that I’m the Boss of Me returned from a layoff of more than six months to win sharply in October 2022, and she began a solid work pattern for this race a full two months ago. Her game second last Oaklawn meet to the very talented Hot and Sultry makes it easy to see I’m the Boss of Me showing her Poinsettia rivals who’s in charge Saturday.

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