Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Ginger Brew, Jerome, and Unusual Heat Turf Classic
We find plenty of stakes action across America on this first Saturday of (gasp) 2023 – just not an abundance of quality. On the bright side, fair weather prevails in key areas of both coasts, unlike last weekend’s national blanket of wetness, good news for turf-race forecasting.
Ginger Brew
The third-place finisher from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf makes her first start for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has tabbed Irad Ortiz Jr. to ride, meaning Cairo Consort will be taking heavy betting in this one-mile grass contest for 3-year-old fillies. She’s fine, but her Natalma win came over a soft group, and Cairo Consort’s finishing position at Keeneland overstates the strength of her performance. She’s well exposed, having raced six times at 2, and are we sure she really wants more than, say, seven furlongs?
Anna Karenine makes her North American debut for trainer Chad Brown, who obviously has a long, rich history with imported French fillies. He starts this one very early in the season, which might just be a matter of timing, but also might mean he doesn’t see her as a candidate for more important races later in the year. Her overseas form is nothing special, and Anna Karenine won’t be anything close to a fair price.
Erna has talent, with speed to mitigate a wide draw. Liguria, who nipped her two back, was much the best Dec. 3 at Del Mar in the Jimmy Durante. She’s a better play than the two likely favorites.
But Navy Goat gets my money, presumably at a very nice price. The filly isn’t fast enough yet, but I see every reason to believe she’s primed for a career peak in her fourth race, second this form cycle.
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The Monmouth grass was a front-runner’s paradise much of the summer, and Navy Goat had little chance there when slow to find stride, wide on the turn in a five-furlong dash where the pacesetter aired and the pace-chaser held a clear second. In mid-September, Navy Goat stretched out and cleared the maiden ranks despite not really caring for the Kentucky Downs course, and returning two months later over Gulfstream Tapeta, she caught the eye in heavily restricted stakes. Stuck in a claustrophobic spot behind and among horses nearly her entire trip, Navy Goat dominated when she found rail daylight in upper stretch, closing into an absurdly slow pace. Her stretch run looked strong, the gallop-out even better. Navy Goat’s subsequent work pattern is extremely encouraging – she’s ready for her best.
Jerome
The Jerome appeals because I don’t trust Remsen runner-up Arctic Arrogance at a short price. The turnback to a mile might not be a bad thing for him, but this front-running type faces a demanding pace scenario. I don’t believe in his Beyer Speed Figure over sloppy going in the Remsen, and Aqueduct should be dry for the Jerome.
Lugan Knight should be clear second choice. He ran better than his figure two back at Keeneland, and Victory Formation, winner of Lugan Knight’s last-out allowance race, is very nice, as he demonstrated last weekend in the Smarty Jones. Lugan Knight closed ground on Victory Formation the final half-furlong, but I think that mainly was a mirage. Victory Formation gutted out a fast-paced front-running win, and the place horse’s run petered out 50 yards from the wire. I’m not convinced Lugan Knight improves stretching to a one-turn mile.
Neural Network can take back, make one run into a strong pace, and win the Jerome at a fair price. Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables show confidence moving from a New York-bred maiden win at this distance into an open stakes. Neural Network pulled a wide trip in his debut score while showing encouraging acceleration and plenty of stay. He’s gotten in plenty of subsequent work and doesn’t need a massive forward move to post an upset.
Unusual Heat Turf Classic
Carmelita’s Man came through for me Aug. 6 at Del Mar, and I like him quite a bit here. This gelding didn’t even hit the height of his powers until last year at age 5, and he comes into this following a two-month break – a clear positive for a horse who runs well fresh. Carmelita’s Man’s last two tries at this nine-furlong trip came against graded stakes-class Hong Kong Harry and Shadow Sphinx, who went on become a stakes horse this past fall.
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