Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Fantasy, Appleton, Sanibel Island
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The Forte Derby at Gulfstream Park headlines an Arkansas- and Florida-centric Saturday of American horseracing.
Okay, okay, call it the Florida Derby, if you must, but I’ll call Forte an odds-on favorite I won’t be in the business of trying to beat, even from post 11. Mage had the worst trip in the Fountain of Youth and an encouraging recent six-furlong drill (ignore the modest clocking), but I suspect he’ll be half his morning-line price, and this probably is too much, too soon. Jungfrau, anyone?
Really wish there were a horse in the Arkansas Derby to take money away from Reincarnate, but there isn’t, and as the likely favorite I can’t support him, though I do see Reincarnate as the most likely winner. Reincarnate had to overcome a lot just to finish third in the Rebel, though his most recent work left more questions than answers.
Fantasy
I’m not assuming Wet Paint is a sloppy-track specialist, but there’s no question that the filly goes well over a wet surface. Her three dirt races, all wins, came in the slop, though one does note the very fast workout times over a fast Oaklawn strip since the Honeybee. That said, Wet Paint got a dreamy inside run through traffic last time and has been racing steadily since September, turning in consecutive peak performances.
In my mind, there’s a solid chance she either doesn’t get as lucky in the running, takes a step back because of a fast track or natural regression, or is undone by some combination of those factors. She’s a short-priced favorite worth opposing.
Grand Love is the filly for me, though I absolutely don’t expect her to be as high as the listed 8-1 morning-line odds. It seems implausible that Grand Love would be 8-1 and a horse like She’s Lookin Lucky as short as 5-2 – though I hope I’m wrong.
We still don’t know if Grand Love truly is a good horse, but her Hall of Fame trainer, Steve Asmussen, has treated her that way. He tossed her into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies after Grand Love disappointed in her route debut at Churchill and has kept a first-level allowance-eligible filly in graded stakes so far this year.
The Breeders’ Cup wasn’t bad, with Grand Love holding gamely enough considering the fast pace she set. It was noteworthy she raced with effectiveness from off the pace in the Honeybee, and Grand Love did lose a touch of final-furlong momentum when Condensation came out into her path. More than anything, I think Asmussen all along was pointing for the Fantasy.
Grand Love has logged three workouts, two bullets, since her 3-year-old debut. She’s ready to step forward and win this.
Appleton
Granted, he led on a slow pace, which helped, but Churchtown, listed at 15-1 in the Appleton, this past November on the Aqueduct turf, beat Steady On, listed at 3-1 here. Note the progress, Beyer-wise, that 4-year-old Steady On has made over the last few months. Churchtown, also 4, is eligible to take a similar jump forward.
He’s raced but once since beating Steady On, and I don’t think Churchtown is any huge fan of Gulfstream’s synthetic surface. His middling race over it came Dec. 26, and since that start, Churchtown has logged 10 timed workouts, several quick ones (none on video) preparing for his 4-year-old debut.
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That signals to me a horse that is thriving and ready to make that leap. This gelding has the pace not only to overcome an outside draw but to get into a favorable stalking position, where he appears to be comfortable. Churchtown is a young horse coming back from a short break after improving throughout his previous season, 15-1 on the line and trained by a true horseman. Hallelujah!
Sanibel Island
Love Appeals did catch the eye winning her career debut, but she’s the likely favorite here and I think Aunt Shirley might beat her.
Aunt Shirley’s most recent race, the Grade 1 Spinaway, probably is best ignored since she didn’t run at all. She was game beating a precocious filly at Ellis Park in her career debut, and video of her March 24 workout, where she crushed her company, looked very encouraging. The filly is out of a Frankel mare and I’ll guess she takes to the turf.
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