Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Diana, Kelso, Blue Sparkler
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Handicapping the horses is difficult enough. Handicapping the weather adds another layer of complexity. If all the rain comes that’s supposed to come, grass stakes in New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware are going to be contested on soft or yielding ground or moved to dirt. Let’s see if that creates opportunities.
Diana
I touted and bet In Italian at an extremely generous 8-1 when she won the 2022 Diana. A year later, you either pass the race or get wild and try to beat In Italian at something like 3-5.
If the Saratoga course remains firm, In Italian isn’t losing. She’s the controlling speed and simply is a better, faster horse than her opponents. But soft ground can be a great equalizer, blunting the brilliance of a horse like In Italian. I seriously doubt she’ll like too much give in the ground, and if the course comes up that way, the mare just might be beatable.
Of course, Brown dominates this race and can dictate tactics since he sends out four of the five entrants. I suspect Whitebeam, very sharp at Pimlico last out winning her second North American start, will take more action than might be expected. Whitebeam, though, is bred more like a miler than a nine-furlong horse, and there’s no evidence she wants cut in the ground.
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Marketsegmentation, beneficiary of great trips, is for me the Brown to play against, and of his three upset candidates, I prefer Fluffy Socks. This might just be a mare who has hit another level at age 5, and I don’t think a soft course will trouble her.
Yet I’m siding with the lone non-Brown, Fev Rover, to get home at double-digit odds. There’s more to like about this mare than one might see at first glance.
Overseas, she was a better horse than Whitebeam, a Group 2 winner and third in the 2021 English 1000 Guineas. She got her Group 2 win going seven furlongs on soft French ground, and two lesser showings in Ireland came over seriously heavy courses; if the turf is that wet Saturday, they won’t be using it.
Fev Rover did some good things in her three 2022 starts after being imported from England and it might be important to note she did them racing close to the pace. Two weeks ago, in her 2023 debut, Fev Rover was held up in last before coming with a powerhouse move to easily beat highly regarded Moira over a yielding Woodbine course.
Between that sudden tactical shift, her fondness for softer footing, and the expected price, let’s have some Fev Rover for the Diana.
Kelso
Go ahead and have a day, Mark Casse. Casse trains Fev Rover and I like his longshot in the Kelso, Ice Chocolat.
Nothing but respect for Casa Creed, who has toggled between Grade 1 turf sprints and turf miles, and likes Saratoga far, far more than he does Keeneland. Yet there are hints Casa Creed at age 7 might have lost a couple miles an hour off his fastball, and we can’t be sure he’ll handle soft going.
He and Annapolis are the favorites here, and Annapolis was beaten by a decidedly inferior horse at Penn National in his lone run over soggy turf. He had to work to beat listed stakes-class Churchtown in his 2023 debut and has taken 10 weeks to run back.
Ice Chocolat performed well racing 7 1/2 furlongs over heavy ground before he was imported from Brazil, and has hit a new level in his last two starts. The horse that beat him at Woodbine two back returned to finish second behind Elite Power in the True North, and Ice Chocolat didn’t have entirely clear passage in the Jaipur. He’s acting like he might want to get out to one mile and has the services of Flavien Prat.
Blue Sparkler
Plentitude failed to meet a $90,000 reserve at one yearling sale, then failed to even attract a $43,000 bid at a second. Weird, because she can run. Her debut win over Tampa dirt was better than the speed figure, and she took a sizable step forward switching to turf and going up in class last out in New York. Grass or dirt, she’s value in Monmouth’s Saturday feature.
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