Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Daytona, Chorleywood, Salvator Mile
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Confidence level on Sovereignty winning the Belmont? Through the roof. Confidence level a week later, with rain forecast at many tracks? Ground floor, tops. But if the house crumbles, siding with iffy chalk won’t be the cause.
Daytona
Motorious, one of five 7-year-olds entered, will be heavily favored in the Daytona at Santa Anita while making his first start since he followed a near miss in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint with a narrow victory Dec. 28 in the Joe Hernandez. That the former showing rated higher than the latter relates, in my estimation, to distance: While Motorious, if he gets up at all, barely gets up in shorter sprints like the BC Turf Sprint, he’s better at those than going down the hill on Santa Anita’s 6 1/2-furlong course.
The 6 1/2-furlong Daytona does include a 7-year-old course specialist, Air Force Red, who’s 10-5-2-0 down the hill. Twice he’s faced Motorious at this trip: Air Force Red won their first meeting, and when Motorious beat him in the Hernandez, Air Force Red got so badly blocked in the homestretch that the jockey, for good reason, just stopped riding.
No such obvious obstacle arose last month in the Siren Lure, but Air Force Red didn’t have much chance there, either. Six furlongs clearly falls short of his best distance, and the Siren Lure’s slow early tempo worked against Air Force Red, who chased home the two pace horses.
Saturday, Air Force Red can slip into the pocket after breaking from the rail in a race with more speed, and his win price won’t reflect the solid chance he has to beat Motorious.
Chorleywood
A strong chance of rain at Churchill creates an unfortunate extra variable in Saturday turf races like the Chorleywood. That’s harder to take if you’re leaning on a favorite than if you’re playing a price – and we’re playing a price.
Utah Beach has substance, but he also got dream trips his last two races, and three horses in the Louisville – the one who stopped suddenly and the two he impeded – were eliminated from contention.
Both Brian Lynch-trained entrants, Highway Robber and Anglophile, have contending credentials. For various reasons, I don’t want the expected price (Highway Robber’s 15-1 morning line is outrageous) on either.
Lord Bullingdon tries a distance as long as 11 furlongs for the first time, and that’s part of his appeal, as the 4-year-old only recently has been reinvented as a longer-distance grass horse. He held decently going 1 1/4 miles three races back and just as well over 1 1/8 miles last time. He might be the kind of horse whose pace proves more effective the farther he runs. It only looked superficially on May 11 like favored Echo Lane, a pretty good horse, was catching Lord Bullingdon, who actually was going best at the finish before lengthening his advantage galloping out.
The horse has worked aggressively into this start, and I expect Ben Curtis to make full use of Lord Bullingdon’s speed after breaking from the rail. They might not catch him.
Salvator Mile
Small sample size theater, but stats do validate the anecdotal recollection that trainer Brad Cox’s stakes starters at Monmouth haven’t performed to expectations. Over the last three years, Cox has run seven favorites in Monmouth dirt stakes and come away with one win: Idiomatic at 1-10 got home by a head last summer in the Molly Pitcher. The other six went 0-2-1, and only one was longer than odds-on.
Bishops Bay will be odds-on in the Salvator Mile, deservedly so, having taken down the talented Quint’s Brew last out in the Westchester, his third win in a row, but he’s more likely to regress from that peak than maintain, and post 9 going one mile on Monmouth’s dirt track is no bargain.
Vitality gets six pounds from Bishops Bay and can post an upset.
Vitality hasn’t yet run fast enough to threaten Bishops Bay’s baseline, but he’s also a 4-year-old still not fully exposed on dirt. His first eight races came on turf and synthetic and the switch to dirt last summer produced immediate improvement.
He might have taken down another Cox favorite, Star of Wonder, had he maintained a straight course in the homestretch last fall at Churchill, and Vitality even in his last-start score at Gulfstream still wasn’t running straight. He nonetheless hit a new Beyer peak returning from a layoff for a new barn and only needs moderate improvement upon that performance to put a scare – or more – into the Cox-trained Monmouth favorite.
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