Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Charles Town Oaks, Bald Eagle Derby, Laurel Dash for September 21, 2019

Saturday is Pennsylvania Derby Day at Parx, where disqualified Kentucky Derby winner Maximum Security won’t be racing. Yeah, it’s too bad Maximum Security dealt with a bout of colic that knocked him out of the Pennsylvania Derby, but it’s good he appears to be out of the woods in terms of recovery. It’s Mr. Money for me in this race if I’m playing, which I’m not. The Grade 1 Cotillion, jam-packed with pace, holds more appeal wagering-wise, and I’ll be a little interested in Horologist at double-digit win odds.

But for this Weekend GamePlan, lets head a little farther south down the Eastern Seaboard, where Laurel Park on Saturday afternoon and Charles Town on Saturday night have multi-stakes cards.

Charles Town Oaks

Three starts into her career and La Chancla has done some good stuff in one-turn sprints. She can do even more in the Charles Town Oaks, a two-turn sprint race that suits La Chancla in a couple ways. First, it’s a nice step up from the six-furlong races she’s been running without asking her to go too far, and class-wise, the jump from a Saratoga older-horse first-level allowance into this 3-year-old Grade 3 won’t require a massive leap.

La Chancla blew the break in her debut but caught the eye with a solid, sustained move to reach contention at the finish and gallop out in front, and in her Belmont maiden win she was tasked with running down a loose leader at the furlong pole, and was very willing to do so as the top two there finished nearly seven lengths in front of the show horse. She won comfortably on the rise last out, and all along has been striding very encouragingly to the finish, looking like a filly who will be comfortable settling behind a quick pace Saturday night and coming with a strong run into the second turn.

La Chancla has raced inside and behind horses and doesn’t mind kickback, and her most recent work at Belmont, with trainer Rudy Brisset in the irons, was very strong. Anything close to the morning-line 5-1 will look juicy.

Bald Eagle Derby

First pass through this race I latched onto the thought, “Oh, He’s No Lemon is 2-1 on the line? How can he lose?” First off, He’s No Lemon stands a very good chance of going off considerably lower than 2-1. Second off, his last two Beyer Speed Figures could be suffering, like renters and food shoppers, from some good old New York inflation. Third – and this is what really pulled me up short – He’s No Lemon raced July 18 at Saratoga (and raced well), got on trainer Graham Motion’s standard 21 days after a race start breezing again schedule, but after two published Fair Hill works didn’t have a timed drill for nearly a month. Hmm.

So, I’ll go with Jais’s Solitude here and hope he at least gets to his 5-2 morning-line odds. He’s No Lemon has stronger credentials to stay this 12-furlong distance in terms of actual racing, but I don’t mind Jais’s Solitude’s 1 1/2-mile pedigree at all.

The Virginia Derby field wasn’t especially salty, but this gelding (that took place between his April and July starts) really ran well in defeat there. Those ridiculously slow fractions at Colonial are legit and Jais’s Solitude went his final three furlongs in about 35 seconds, his final furlong in less than 11 seconds.

He’s run four strong races since blinkers were added, couldn’t have run big final time figures off slow paces in his two post-gelding starts, and the Eddie Kenneally barn has recently been rolling.

Laurel Dash

Yes, Oldies But Goodies ran a strong race over yielding Laurel turf in September 2018, but he appeared to loathe the wet course there Aug. 10, never looking comfortable in that race, and I have no trouble just drawing a line through it.

The local forecast calls for hot, dry weather through the end of the week and into the weekend, and a baked, firm September Laurel course is one that often favors inside speed – you know, like Oldies But Goodies. This horse is plenty quick to make the front if he hits the kick from this rail draw, and we’re talking here about a 4-year-old with only a handful of grass starts – upside, right? This is kind of a mishmash of a race, but the hope is the 4-1, which seems fair, sticks in the end.