Weekend GamePlan: Picks for California Cup Day stakes, Wayward Lass

Calling this a light stakes Saturday probably is not quite strong enough language. The lone stakes at Oaklawn and Aqueduct came up with short fields lacking substance. The one at Gulfstream didn’t even make it onto the card. Book’em Danno is a somewhat interesting 3-year-old sprinter-miler type, but he’ll be no price in the Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs. Yet three races must be found for consideration. Here they come.

Unusual Heat Turf Classic

Aligato both does and does not have unfinished business in the Turf Classic. He won the race in 2022 but was second as the best horse in the 2023 renewal. Saturday, he stands a strong chance of making it two out of three.

Aligato didn’t even make the races until partway through his 4-year-old season, so, while he’s a 7-year-old now, this is an older model with very low mileage. The 2022 Turf Classic marked Aligato’s first start beyond a sprint distance, and the gelding definitely found his niche as a real route horse. All four of his starts at this nine-furlong trip have been good, and he raced competitively against open company going 1 1/4 miles. It’s a certainty that while Aligato has made four starts this form cycle, connections had this race circled months ago, and one expects Aligato to be coming up to it ready to peak.

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A year ago, after what had been a good trip sitting in the pocket, he found himself stuck in upper stretch behind three horses who just would not get out of the way. Jockey Flavien Prat, who rides again this time, finally gave up looking for a hole and swung outside. Aligato does not have push-button acceleration, and by the time he found his best stride, it was too late.

Santa Anita-loving Bally’s Charm probably is the real danger here, and he can get nine furlongs with a clear lead, but Kings River Knight (who is fast enough but doesn’t stay) will keep him from backing up the pace. The venerable Carmelita’s Man does his best work at Del Mar. This is Aligato’s race.

Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Sprint

Post position plays a major part in the selection here. Had Chancery Way drawn inside, she’d be facing a pressured trip that could work against her. But we see time and again that even one-way speed horses like Chancery Way can sit just off the pace if they’re drawn outside pace rivals and can race along in the clear.

That’s the scenario that ought to play out in the Filly and Mare Turf Sprint, with Chancery Way falling into a sweet pressing trip outside the one horse who might have comparable pace, Unwritten Code. From there, I like Chancery Way’s chances.

The 5-year-old mare has raced only 12 times and is not exposed on turf, where she’s gone winless in three outings. I can find no real excuse for the second of those races, the stakes last June at Golden Gate, but in her turf debut, Chancery Way was beaten a head by Alice Marble, among the best Cal-bred female turf sprinters of 2021-22. Her third turf start came in August, when Chancery Way set the pace and held gamely for third going a two-turn mile clearly beyond her best distance. That she stayed on as well as she did bodes well for her seeing out this 6 1/2-furlong distance – with help from a good post.

Wayward Lass

The morning line here might miss the mark, but Magical Lute still could offer fair value in the Wayward Lass. This filly ought to get a great setup racing last behind a fast, contested pace, and while she has made nine starts, only her most recent came around two turns, and I think it’s no coincidence that outing produced a career-best performance.

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It looked like Magical Lute intentionally was held at the rear of that Churchill Downs allowance, which, top to bottom, was a stronger race than this. That’s fine, as she’s a confirmed one-run filly, but a slow early and middle pace gave her little chance to win, and Magical Lute’s fastest finishing time only was good for fourth.

Who cares? The takeaway is that she ran better routing than sprinting, and Magical Lute was doing her best work in her final 10 strides before galloping out well in front. She’s getting the setup in the Wayward Lass and can get the money.

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