Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Buena Vista, Tampa Turf Dash, and Downthedustyroad
There are no major 3-year-old races this weekend, but we’ll still try to nudge a touch of value out of three stakes races, one on each coast, one in the heart of the country.
Buena Vista
Is the hype real? Could be. Jolie Olimpica cruised to three easy wins in Brazil, was purchased by Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farms and imported to America, turned over to trainer Richard Mandella in California, and looked like all that making her North American debut Jan. 11 turf sprinting in the Las Cienegas Stakes over 5 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita. The replay backs up the on-paper impression of Jolie Olimpica’s last three starts, but she was 6-5 last time and my guess is she’ll be at least that short stretching to a two-turn mile in the Buena Vista. I don’t believe the longer trip presents an issue, but Mandella was quoted saying this filly is on the small side and that he’d have to be very cognizant of keeping her from doing too much or running back too quickly. Perhaps it’s that approach (and training on dirt) that explains the somewhat odd and relatively lackluster workout Jolie Olimpica turned in Feb. 13.
Lady Prancealot figures the solid second choice and she’s pretty good, but I’m not enthused about the cutback to one mile, a distance at which this filly is capable but less effective than at trips of nine furlongs and farther.
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Carressa was hapless as a spring 3-year-old of 2019 but returned from a long break a totally different horse, and I’ll take her to post a mild upset. Carressa is by Uncle Mo, whose offspring often favor grass over dirt, and it was only in her most recent start that she tried a turf race. She pulled too hard in the early stages, which is nothing new for Carressa, though the filly has shown signs of settling a little better through this form cycle. Even so, she had plenty left to fend off all closers in that start, the Grade 3 Megahertz, and galloped out well in front. She’s come back with a brisk string of works for this step up in class, can get a good trip if she’ll relax, and will be the right price to play.
Tampa Turf Dash
Justaholic didn’t race between June 2018 and June 2019, and when he returned to action last summer, his connections had a plan, a switch to turf sprints. That went very, very well. Justaholic took a slight step back at Colonial Downs, where Extravagant Kid, the likely favorite here in the Turf Dash, beat him a length, and his race over a wet, demanding, and tricky Parx Racing course is a toss in my book. This horse has excellent speed but goes easily and comfortably on turf, and I love the way he’s taken off between the quarter pole and the furlong grounds in his top performances. He’s well drawn on the outside to make the best use of his assets, has put together a very encouraging work pattern at the track where he was stabled two winters ago, and, in this book, would be value as something like the 3-1 second choice.
Downthedustyroad
Now we’re digging deep to find playable Saturday stakes races, but at least this sex-restricted Arkansas-bred sprint race has a large, competitive field, and in 5-2 morning-line favorite Bye Bye J a favorite I don’t mind opposing.
Bye Bye J hasn’t started since last May, was tailing off already at that point, and races for a new barn, which is fine, but she’s going to be a short price on the supposition she’ll jump right back to her better form. I’m not convinced, and there are questions surrounding other shorter prices in this race, too.
What about Sekani? She just raced Feb. 17 and the barn has a second entrant in the race, and I wonder if she isn’t scratched. If she comes out or fails to show the same kind of gate speed, Dixie Flyer can shake loose on the lead here at a price. She’s been plying her trade in two-turn Delta races but might better suit a one-turn, larger-oval sprint. If she could duplicate her Prairie Meadows front-running six-furlong victory from last year, she could impact this race at long odds.
