Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Breeders' Futurity, First Lady, Jockey Club Derby

Four weeks out from Breeders’ Cup and the hotline for phoning in clues rings off the wall. Wednesday in Japan, Forever Young showed us he’s still out there. The Coolmore Turf Mile on Saturday at Keeneland reveals key players for the BC Mile. Saturday 2-year-old racing in California, Kentucky, and New York will seriously sort the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies. Lots to consider – including these three races.

Breeders’ Futurity

You won’t find too many horses looking like Ted Noffey. He gets that unusual hair coat (his tail is spectacular) by way of the dam’s sire, Old Fashioned. That’s a name in pedigrees that brings immediately to my mind the words “sprinter” and “limited,” but young Ted can’t be defined by his maternal grandfather.

Buetane is pretty nice. He appeared in public video of a recent breeze to solidly outwork Breeders’ Futurity starter Litmus Test. Ted Noffey crushed Buetane in the Hopeful. Ted rates kindly enough, has a nice turn of foot for a dirt horse, and he galloped out after the Hopeful like he’ll stay two turns. I’m not strongly against Ted Noffey, though it will be difficult for him, at a tiny price, not to regress.

Blackout Time’s the play, though probably at win odds several ticks below the listed 10-1.

The late Dazzle d’Oro had about as much raw talent as any 2-year-old this year. He got the jump on Blackout Time in their common debut, but Blackout Time, less brilliant, less well intended first out, stuck with him through the homestretch and galloped out in front.

Blackout Time’s one-mile Ellis maiden win looks even better on the visual than through the flashy running line. He traveled sweetly into and around the turn, and when the jockey briefly asked for run in upper stretch, Blackout Time kicked in hard and fast before being geared down. Again, he galloped out beautifully. Only one workout video pops up since his win. In it, Blackout Time approaching the eighth pole saw a horse galloping slowly not far outside his path, which led him to switch leads and duck in. He still finished powerfully.

Expect Blackout Time to settle several lengths off the pace. Bred like a long-distance turf horse, he’ll prove better around two turns than one. The leaders ought to be coming back as Blackout Time surges – hopefully with enough force to catch Ted Noffey.

First Lady

The morning line lists Nanda Dea at 15-1. The two Beyer Speed Figures she earned since coming to North America came back allowance-class, 86 and 83. No starts since February.

Yet I don’t believe it’s a reach tabbing Nanda Dea to win the First Lady.

A reminder that a turf race with a very slow pace cannot produce a strong final-time figure. Nanda Dea has been in two of those. The first came last fall over the Keeneland course, her home track, and what should be taken away from that performance is the eighth of a mile, from the quarter pole to the furlong grounds, when Nanda Dea was asked to stretch out. She buried those horses. In her Fair Grounds stakes win, Nanda Dea – and her jockey – toyed with overmatched opposition.

The short comments for her major wins in Argentina – where she was champion miler – do not exaggerate the ease of those victories. This mare is a very high class.

Nanda Dea is a turf horse, has the action of a turf horse, but she goes well enough in dirt breezes for anyone watching them to see she’s coming off the bench ready for something representative. This isn’t the toughest First Lady ever. Nanda Dea could be the one.

Jockey Club Derby

Hill Road will get all the love here, but I’m going with his stablemate, Asbury Park.

The first thing to catch the eye: He is a son Frankel, a great miler who has become a great sire of grass horses who want to run farther than that.

Asbury Park has the body of a marathoner. Don’t know why he ran so dully two back, but the rest of his form suggests a solid platform to hit a career peak Saturday. Probably the trainer has targeted this race since before the Saranac, where Asbury Park fell too far behind a slow pace. He hit the line strongly that day and by the middle of the clubhouse turn had galloped out far in front. And this time, the gallop-out following a 1 1/16-mile contest is part of the actual race.