Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Blue Norther, Abundantia, Heft

White Abarrio headlines the last Saturday of racing during 2024, and if you think the seven-furlong Mr. Prospector is too short for the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, you didn’t watch his seven-furlong comeback race last month.

Another Breeders’ Cup-class horse, Motorious, heads the Santa Anita turf-sprint feature.

Both those favorites look like winners at a short price, White Abarrio especially. We’ll try to make something more from a trio of hundred-granders coast to coast.

Blue Norther

Can’t say I’ve seen the short comment “brutal trip” in a horse’s official running lines before, but that succinctly tells the tale of Supa Speed’s journey Nov. 1 in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes and speaks toward her viability as a win candidate in the Blue Norther. To be clear, she’s viable. Very.

Just don’t expect the 3-1 listed on the morning line. Even without Flavien Prat named, Supa Speed looks like the Blue Norther favorite, and with Prat aboard, it’s exceedingly difficult imagining her a longer price than Will Then, the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Will Then won the Jimmy Durante at Del Mar with a favorable setup in a lesser race than the one Supa Speed exits, and Will Then didn’t draw especially well Saturday.

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Supa Speed literally spent nearly as much time with her rider steadying and off balance than she did actually racing in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. No sooner did Supa Speed find her way clear from one spot of trouble than she got into another one. The trip accounts entirely for her 12th-place finish, and Supa Speed, using her first two starts as a guide, easily appears the most likely winner.

Her five-furlong debut score showed a filly with the stride rhythm and general appearance of a route horse. Going one mile second out, she followed and chased victorious Thought Process, who came up empty in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf but clearly rated as Southern California’s top horse in the division through late summer and fall.

No such rival awaits Saturday – and Supa Speed cannot have worse luck than what befell her last time.

Abundantia

Twirling Queen and Mrs. Gambolini will attract the most win betting in this female-restricted turf sprint, but I’ll side with Karaya. Twirling Queen’s wide draw and short price make her an unappealing play, though her contender status carries more heft than Mrs. Gambolini’s.

Mrs. Gambolini had easy trips beating up on soft competition in her two wins, and she’s in for an entirely different experience Saturday. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. talked about his filly making the lead from post 1, but if she does, she’ll be going too fast given the abundance of pace drawn outside her.

Meanwhile, Twirling Queen stands a great chance of getting hung wide on the turn. When Twirling Queen beat Karaya by three-quarters of a length in March, she got the jump on Karaya, who turned in the faster final furlong that day. The race came on Tapeta and, superficially, Karaya appears better on synthetics than turf. I’m not so sure. She had the rail facing 11 foes in her debut, her first grass start, then failed to stay a two-turn mile pressing a fast pace her second time on grass. Her third turf try, in June at Woodbine, came over a wet course, and a layoff that ended in late November followed it.

Karaya’s comeback revealed an improved filly. Karaya raced behind horses and turned in a powerful finish, a contrast to the forward style she’d employed before the layoff, and the right way to run in the pace-packed Abundantia.

Yes, Karaya slipped up the fence last out, a lucky journey, but she looked loaded with run the entire trip. I expect more of the same Saturday.

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Heft

You’ll rarely see a first-time starting 2-year-old run like Yara’s Quest did in his winning debut.

Yara’s Quest made an early inside lead, took pressure all the way around the turn while slightly losing position, and had been displaced on the lead straightening for the wire. Instead of wilting, he stayed on bravely, took the lead again the final furlong, won going away, and galloped out like a colt looking for more distance and stronger competition. Yara’s Quest looks physically advanced and should prove better going seven furlongs second out than in his impressive debut victory – and that could prove sufficient to take the Heft.

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