Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Bing Crosby, Ontario Colleen, Monmouth Oaks

Looks like the perfect spot for Fierceness to get back on track, this Jim Dandy. Outside draw in a short field with a speed horse who might tow him along – ideal circumstances, and Fierceness looks far stronger and robust than he did in Louisville. But the bang for beating Sierra Leone – no easy task – just isn’t worth the buck.

Subrogate came under serious consideration in Saratoga’s second stakes, the Vanderbilt, but I can’t shake the feeling he’ll better suit the seven-furlong Forego than this six-furlong contest in which Skelly, from this vantage point, appears vulnerable.

Bing Crosby

Track the prices: 1-2, 1-20, 2-5, 1-5, 1-20. Those are The Chosen Vron’s win odds his last five starts. Yeesh. This gelding has been making SoCal dirt sprints, California-bred and open, unplayable the last several months.

The Bing Crosby is a horse of a different color, a race with a surprisingly deep and talented field. Two plausible perspectives arise. One: The Chosen Vron, no longer kicking around tomato cans, is in for a rude awakening. Two: A bettor might finally find real value in backing the gelding.

We’re opening Door No. 2.

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I happened to be at Pimlico when Straight No Chaser won the 2023 Maryland Sprint, and wow, that was among the strongest one-turn dirt performances of the last few years. While the horse did have an excuse for his comeback run, and from the look of public workout video has posted some encouraging breezes, and just might wind up speed of the speed, I can’t see him getting back to that level.

Happy Jack popped huge ones his last two starts. He’d never before hit that level and the races came at Santa Anita, not Del Mar. I’m skeptical he holds that form.

Closethegame Sugar and, to a lesser extent, Anarchist, have chances at better prices, but when you go back and watch the 2023 Bing Crosby to see how Anarchist looks at his best, you come away with the idea that The Chosen Vron won’t be beaten Saturday.

This is a gelding who has serious sprint speed. Put him on the lead and he’s content. But in last year’s Crosby, The Chosen Vron, already racing from behind, had to be checked during a bumper-cars portion of the race early on the turn. He not only made a big move just to get back into position, The Chosen Vron rallied inside Anarchist and the very capable Dr. Schivel to just get up.

It probably won’t be as close this time.

Ontario Colleen

The trainer Roger Attfield over the last five years has sent forth eight first-time starters in turf routes. Up until April, one had finished second, the others fifth or worse. Then, at Keeneland, Attfield unleased Ready for Shirl. She debuted in a turf-route maiden and won going away, running the fastest quarter-mile around the far turn before finishing off with the field’s fastest final quarter-mile while beating a pair of capable rivals, Pin Up Betty and Spaliday.

I don’t believe for a moment that the filly’s second-start cutback to seven furlongs on Tapeta served as anything more than a bridge to summer racing, and Ready for Shirl was even more dominant than her 1 1/4-length win margin in her last-start, first-level turf allowance score. Runner-up Miss Roberts had made a big move from last, closing into a slow pace, and caught Ready for Shirl flat-footed. But Ready for Shirl quickly responded, winning with her ears up.

This filly has a serious pedigree, and is big and physically mature for her age. She has a sustained move, a turn of foot, and positional pace. It’s a good field in this Ontario Colleen. Ready for Shirl is the best of them.

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Monmouth Oaks

Chilled’s six-start career includes a quartet of one-turn races and a pair of starts around two turns. At one turn, the filly appears limited. At two turns, we don’t know her ceiling.

Her route debut, first start following a winter break, came in a tough Keeneland maiden. Her second two-turn try, June 22 at Churchill, yielded a blowout victory that looks even better on replay than in past performances. Rating comfortably, Chilled came into the homestretch loaded with run and moved so strongly to the front that taking a legitimate bump while splitting rivals did nothing to stop her momentum.

She’s meant to improve again, and that should suffice to win the Monmouth Oaks at a fair price.

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