Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Bessarabian, Smart Halo, Showtime Deb

Flightline! Malathaat, Rebel’s Romance, Modern Games. It already almost seems like a dream, the 2022 Breeders’ Cup. We’re only one week removed, but mid-winter feels more palpable than the Keeneland Breeders’ Cup. Still . . . weekend stakes racing goes on. We’ve got three stops this week.

Bessarbian

The Maple Leaf shares top billing Saturday at Woodbine, where fillies and mares and Tapeta take center stage. I looked long and hard at the Maple Leaf but could turn over no solid opinion in what appears to be a well-matched field.

I think there are more horses of true talent in the Bessarbian than the Maple Leaf. I’m also not sure I see pricing the same way as the morning-line maker – but I hope that person is close to right.

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Granted, 5-2 morning-line favorite Artie’s Princess does show something that’s often a harbinger of success – a radical last-start shift in running style. The 5-year-old mare, who won the 2021 renewal of this race, always has been a pace player and in her first three starts this form cycle had been the early leader; suddenly, she won the Presque Isle Masters on Sept. 19 coming from ninth? Drawn on the rail, though, Artie’s Princess could once again deploy that speed and wind up part of a pace that’s at least solid.

Hazelbrook’s only loss this entire season was to Lady Speightspeare, a horse so good she just was third last weekend in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Hazelbrook looks like a major player, while at 6-1 on the morning line, 3-year-old Loyalty, unbeaten over Woodbine Tapeta, carries ample value.

All that said, I’m all in if Our Flash Drive comes up anywhere near her listed 7-2 odds – though she’ll likely be lower. Our Flash Drive clearly classes up adequately, has handled this surface in the past, and comes into the Bessarbian holding fine form. She did not so much lose the Ontario Matron last month as Kate’s Kingdom came and took it from her; note that Our Flash Drive finished 5 1/2 lengths clear of the show horse.

Hopefully, most bettors will view her turn back from routes to this one-turn, seven-furlong trip as questionable at best, negative at worst. I see it as positive. Our Flash Drive was rank last time and in all her route races at least gives off hints she’s just coping with the trip rather than relishing it. Her maiden win, going seven furlongs on the Woodbine main track, offers further evidence that shorter could be better. Our Flash Drive faced 11 foes there, some quite talented, and had no trouble coping with the distance. Once she straightened out after racing greenly in upper stretch, her finish seriously impressed, and she can swoop to victory in the Bessarbian.

Smart Halo

They have Bound by Destiny as the favorite, but I believe Twice as Sweet will be the chalk in this dirt sprint for 2-year-old fillies. Twice as Sweet last out at Keeneland ran into Key of Life, who came back to dominate listed stakes competition, and her figures slot in smartly here. Thing is, the filly has three races worth of experience already, and I doubt she can improve on the day.

Visually and from a figure perspective, Dissolute looks better than Twice as Sweet, the concern being her ridiculously easy Delaware debut win came in an off-the-turf, five-furlong dash over a wet track. This is going to be tougher.

Diamondsifyoudo goes the other direction, cutting back from a seven-furlong Keeneland debut, where she appeared to be on the way to victory at the furlong grounds before a filly she’d just passed came back on her to win. Diamondsifyoudo had a demanding trip and ought to have gotten a lot out of the race, physically and mentally. Trainer Graham Motion eschews maidens for a stakes try – seems meaningful.

Showtime Deb

Speaking of maidens in stakes races, I think Cat Royale is going to win another 2-year-old filly sprint, this one for Illinois-breds at Hawthorne. When a capable debut outfit sends a first-time starter into a stakes race, I pay close attention, and Cat Royale brings an excellent work pattern to her first race. Her two siblings to race, Cat Attack and Purr Sea, both are Illinois stakes horse, and Purr Sea scored a sharp 2-year-old debut win racing five furlongs. Video and speed-figure evidence says there’s nothing to fear among those that’ve raced.

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