Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Bed o' Roses, Pegasus, Chorleywood

Anyone advocating for limited use of the riding crop need only replay the Belmont Stakes to make the point that the crop can do more harm than good. Mindframe snatched defeat from the jaws of victory after feeling a serious left-hander for the first time in his life, and Dornoch coming back on the rail, Remsen-style, serves as our final image from the 2024 Triple Crown.

Triple Crown’s end opens a door to summer racing. Here we go.

Bed o’ Roses

Often when one finds oneself circling through various plausible contenders in a race, it means one would be better off watching than betting. I have a different sense regarding the Bed o’ Roses.

Big Pond jumped off the page on the first pass. This filly looked live in the Madison at Keeneland, where she ran not a step, but she was back to her better California form last month after being transferred to Hall of Famer Bill Mott. She better suits this seven-furlong race than the 6 1/2-furlong Vagrancy, but Big Pond got a perfect Vagrancy trip, and she should have run down Leave No Trace.

All credit to trainer Phil Serpe for bringing Leave No Trace back from the land of the lost. The mare looked like she’d given up on racing this past winter and instead sparked back to life. I’d guess Leave No Trace hit her ceiling in the Vagrancy, though she should trip out similarly Saturday.

:: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets.

Flying Connection recently has run faster than anyone else here and exits the best race. She’s also been in the same barn throughout her career and now lives daily life in different hands, and after two peak performances, regression lies at hand.

Shidabhuti? Is she improving, or did she kind of just run along for a well-beaten third in the Ruffian? This marks a step down in class, perhaps not quite enough of one.

Morning Matcha is the play. She needs to exceed her recent speed figures to win, but why can’t she? I’d posit that seven furlongs is her trip, yet five starts in a row last year came over longer distances around two turns. Her 87 Beyer winning at seven furlongs on Dec. 3 came at the end of a long year. Her 87 Beyer on April 22 came in her first start since the Dec. 3 race. Morning Matcha also failed to change leads that day; she’s not perfect with them but usually gets back on her proper lead in the homestretch.

The forecast calls for a pace hotter than one might expect on paper. Morning Matcha awakens at the three-furlong marker, comes with an upset run.

Pegasus

I’m really not certain how the money will be spread out in the Pegasus, but I suspect New Jersey-bred Sea Streak will go to post a fair price.

I loved Sea Steak when he debuted last summer at Monmouth in the open Smoke Glacken Stakes. Well meant and capable, Sea Streak ran into fellow Jersey-bred Book’em Danno, winner last weekend of the Grade 1 Woody Stephens.

Sea Streak somewhat lost his way over the winter at Gulfstream. He appeared to lack focus in his races, didn’t progress from his summer form. But, back at Monmouth for the Long Branch in May, Sea Streak finally came forward. He raced in tight quarters along the rail much of the race, a claustrophobic spot that bothered him not a whit. Granted, the Long Branch competition was soft, but Sea Streak proved he can race just as effectively around two turns as one, and with an outside post Saturday, he’s in for a good trip.

Chorleywood

What stops the Chorleywood unfolding just like the Louisville? Nothing that I can see.

:: Get the Inside Track with the FREE DRF Morning Line Email Newsletter. Subscribe now.

Trainer Mike Maker has no peer claiming older middle-distance horses and turning them into turf marathoners. Sugoi raced first after a Maker claim in the May 18 Louisville, grabbed an easy lead, and comfortably stayed that 1 1/2-mile distance. Maker, in fact, said in post-race interviews that Sugoi, relaxing on a slow pace, raced just as he’d imagined when the claim was dropped.

On paper there is absolutely nothing keeping him from getting the same trip Saturday night as he did last month. Bold Act at base is the best horse in the race, but in his two starts this year he has shown no interest in keeping his mind on racing. By the time he gets going, Sugoi will be gone.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.