Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Arlington Million, Jim Dandy, Clement Hirsch
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The Arlington Million comes up the same week that the bankruptcy sale of Hawthorne Race Course went official, effectively ending horse racing in Chicago.
Depressing.
Leaving the past to the past, this Million card at Colonial, Arlington’s ersatz replacement, came up strong. And maybe, just maybe, it will stop raining at Saratoga.
Arlington Million
Merely quoting yourself is bad enough, but quoting your own social media post? Just awful. But here you go.
On April 18, just after the Elkhorn Stakes, @drfhersh tweeted, “My stars what did we just see?!”
Pretty strong, isn’t it? And Burnham Square’s performance in the Elkhorn absolutely merited a strong response.
I’d forgotten until a rewatch this week that his trip had turned tricky: steadied into the first turn, stymied behind rivals for about the first mile. The run Burnham Square made off the final turn and to the eighth pole – phenomenal. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more impressive turf-stakes win.
Did Burnham Square beat little in the Elkhorn? Sure did. The Louisville on May 16 was an even easier spot, and after Burnham Square won handily trainer Ian Wilkes proceeded to move his budding turf star out of the graded stakes ranks and go to the listed Chorleywood.
That was all part of the plan. Wilkes laid out Burnham Square’s entire season before it even began, and he did that after calling a quick halt to the gelding’s 3-year-old campaign just after Burnham Square made an excellent turf debut in the Nashville Derby. Sure, Burnham Square seemed to have topped out as a dirt horse, but that top did include a win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass. This was a very, very good 3-year-old on the main track, and he’s much better on grass.
The Million – it has always been on the agenda for Burnham Square, who, even while winning earlier this year, still was getting an education. Wilkes believed that Burnham Square, a greyhound type who always was meant to mature into a better 4-year-old, needed to fully grow up mentally – to ship better, to keep his cool in the paddock and post parade.
Here’s my hope: The soft competition through the spring and the narrow win over Chapman’s Peak in the Chorleywood boost the win price Saturday.
Burnham Square actually ran lights-out last time. He’d never raced on the lead but wound up there with a mile still left to race, a totally new experience. Nor had Burnham Square during his turf career found himself in a homestretch duel. Chapman’s Peak, now out of action, is a better horse than you realize. And do you have any idea how fast these two came home? The Chorleywood’s fifth quarter-mile went in 22.69, and Burnham Square got his last three-eighths in 34.22. He was going away at the finish and galloped out like he was being chased by a pack of wolves.
Burnham Square can handle the cut back to 1 1/4 miles and win the Million – all part of the plan.
Jim Dandy
Having covered Chip Honcho at Fair Grounds, I say with confidence that, with the trip he got, the colt would have been an Ohio Derby also-ran the first five months of this year. His big winter race came when he made the lead and galloped along in the Risen Star. When Chip Honcho encountered more demanding circumstances, he didn’t show up.
In the Ohio Derby, Chip Honcho got stuck behind horses going into the first turn, briefly tossed his head, then settled like a sleeping toddler for jockey Jose Ortiz. He had dead aim on the two in front of him at the quarter pole, only to have his path taken away when Ocelli whizzed up outside. No matter. Ortiz waited, Chip Honcho waited with him, and, once clear, the colt delivered the best finish of his career.
Here’s the irony: I want Chip Honcho back on the lead Saturday. The Jim Dandy has next to no pace. Chip Honcho still is getting better. The short prices coming out of the Belmont might not catch him.
Clement Hirsch
An earthquake of a flop from Seismic Beauty in her long layoff comeback race. A Bob Baffert-trained horse returning short on fitness? Ha. Seismic Beauty, I don’t think, is bouncing back, but she is getting in another speed duel with Simply Joking.
Eunomia gets the perfect stalk-and-pounce trip. She’s just 4 and has shown signs of a breakthrough – and how many breakthroughs have Saffie Joseph Jr.-trained horses delivered this year? Here comes another one.