Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Alabama, Del Mar Oaks, and King Edward

Three-year-old turf fillies going nine furlongs in California, and 3-year-old dirt fillies going 10 furlongs at Saratoga. There’s a nice balance to that, and strong opinions have been formed in both the Del Mar Oaks and the Alabama.

Alabama

You’ve got to credit Wet Paint for running down Sacred Wish to win the Coaching Club American Oaks. Sacred Wish got a sweet trip pressing a modest pace, while Wet Paint had to come from last and was only able to get home with a 12.54-second final furlong, good stuff for a 3-year-old filly going nine furlongs on a deep track like Saratoga’s.

That was a major rebound for Wet Paint, who I thought ran flat in the Kentucky Oaks and who subsequently was far below form at Ellis Park. But I doubt Wet Paint has another peak in her coming right back. She’s been racing steadily since September. I’m betting on regression.

The horse I’d take out of the Coaching Club is Gambling Girl, a distant third behind Wet Paint. Wet Paint has shown she can win rallying into a slow pace; Gambling Girl needs help on the front end and was lost at sea after stalking those tepid splits in the Coaching Club. Her stablemate Chocolate Gelato ensures a strong pace in this 10-furlong contest.

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Wet Paint beat Taxed three times at Oaklawn, but I like Taxed quite a bit to spring a minor Alabama upset.

Taxed still was in a developmental stage during the Oaklawn meet, and only in her third loss to Wet Paint did she race without blinkers. And in that race, Taxed was stuck behind a wall of horses in upper stretch as Wet Paint sailed past on the outside. Once in the clear, Taxed finished just as well as the winner. Taxed’s Black-Eyed Susan was a tour de force, the filly going across the wire powerfully in her first try over 1 1/8 miles and galloping out like this 10-furlong trip will suit her just fine. And finally, her price gets a positive bump because she lost last out at Indiana, a race she had absolutely no chance to win after enduring an abysmal trip behind a walking pace. Subsequent workout times suggest a filly still in full bloom. It’s Taxed season at the Spa.

Del Mar Oaks

Anisette, one must acknowledge, looks like a very good filly. Granted, her San Clemente win came in fast-paced race where the flow was on her side, but even accounting for that, her performance was excellent.

Impact Warrior, from California’s top turf barn, faced older horses last out in her North American debut and ran very well in what looked like a pure prep for the Del Mar Oaks. She will improve.

With respect to those two, I love Window Shopping.

This filly hit a new peak and became a stakes winner with a professional last-start victory in the Summertime Oaks, a dirt race, but I’d call Window Shopping an accidental dirt horse. She debuted on turf and was entered for turf second time out; the race rained off and Window Shopping performed so well that connections kept her on the main track. She had a terrible trip in the Santa Anita Oaks before the Summertime Oaks, and only now is getting back to what I believe is her real calling – turf.

Her lone grass start, last summer at Del Mar, came with three spots of trouble, and once clear, Window Shopping delivered an epic gallop-out. Video of her Del Mar dirt works is very encouraging, and I think she’s in for favorable ground-saving trip at a fair price.

King Edward

Shirl’s Speight easily is the “best” horse in this race, but he’s prepping for more important targets and didn’t run well at Woodbine last year – a favorite worth opposing.

I toyed with Pao Alto and War Bomber before realizing Treason is the horse here.

Treason won his career debut on grass, and there’s no reason he can’t transfer his hot Tapeta form to turf. Last out, the horse demonstrated he can run as well from off the pace as on it, and he lost miles of ground that day going a nine-furlong trip slightly beyond his best. The horse who beat him, his stablemate, came back with another Tapeta stakes win, while Treason clearly has been aimed toward this spot since his last start on July 1.

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