Weekend GamePlan for Oct.9, 2021: Picks for Keeneland Turf Mile, First Lady, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic
A spectacularly competitive set of Grade 1 races is scheduled for the first Saturday of Keeneland’s fall meeting. We’ll try to puzzle through two of those and dredge up a throwback performance from a 7-year-old front-runner at Belmont.
Keeneland Turf Mile
He’s 7-2 on the morning line and could go off a tick shorter than that, but I still really like Order of Australia in the 13-runner Keeneland Turf Mile.
Order of Australia was a 73-1 shot winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile last fall at Keeneland, but Order of Australia absolutely validated that form in two recent French starts.
Two races ago, in the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois, one of Europe’s most important mile contests, Order of Ausrtralia lost only to Palace Pier and Poetic Flare. That is very strong form. Palace Pier is rated the world’s top turf miler and will be favored in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Oct. 16 at Ascot. Poetic Flare isn’t far behind Palace Pier and might be nearly his equal on the firm footing he prefers.
The Marois is a straight-course mile and there’s an argument to be made that Order of Australia prefers turning races. Back in France last month for the Group 1 Prix du Moulin, run around a right-handed bend, Order of Australia was outkicked in upper stretch by Baaeed – another elite miler, no worse than third choice in the QE II – before coming back on that rival through the final half-furlong to finish second while holding clear Group 1-winner Victor Ludorum.
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On company lines alone, Order of Australia fits this race like a glove, and that’s not even accounting for his big race last fall over a course many horses fail to handle. He won the BC Mile from post 14 and post 10 won’t be a major impediment for a European horse with American-style positional pace. I see him slotting into a favorable trip similar to the one that won an even bigger Keeneland prize last November.
First Lady
Althiqa is a formidable First Lady favorite, but three trips to the U.S. from England in a season that began eight months ago in Dubai might be asking a lot of the filly. And if you think Althiqa can be taken down, the First Lady opens in many directions.
Regal Glory looks like the rare under-the-radar Chad Brown-trained mare. Carefully managed, with only occasional forays into Grade 1s, she appears to be in career-best form, freshened since her last run Aug. 8 in hopes of taking down this major prize. Regal Glory’s trip in the Just a Game was abysmal and she also lost ground in a tough renewal of the De La Rose before posting a very fast come-home time.
Regal Glory can outrun her odds, as can Harvey’s Lil Goil, whose fall Keeneland turf form from last season plus a cutback in trip might bring her back to her best at a price.
Still, I’ll try the race’s other overseas shipper, Empress Josephine, who actually has much higher-level European form than Althiqa. Empress Josephine is a Classic winner, and the filly she beat in the Irish 1000 Guineas, Joan of Arc, also is a Classic winner, having captured the Prix de Diane (French Oaks).
I believe a combination of regression following her peak performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas and the very demanding nature of the courses at Ascot and Goodwood led to the two poor performances clouding her form. And in the Group 1 Matron last month at Leopardstown, a relatively flat track with left-handed turns like those in America, Empress Josephine looked like her best self again, closing strongly for fourth behind three excellent fillies. She gets a bit of weight and has a good chance to adapt to American-style racing.
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic
I’m a Gufo believer, think his best is still to come, and believe he’d have beaten Japan in the Sword Dancer even if Japan hadn’t encountered some trouble. Channel Maker, however, looks like the real value in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, a race he won just last year.
Channel Maker is a 50-and-change kind of speed horse, and he was done in by the presence of Tribhuvan in the Sword Dancer, where he went his first half-mile in 48.59. No Tribhuvan here, and Channel Maker is loose on the lead while making the third start of his form cycle. More give in the ground would enhance his chances, but even on firm turf 7-year-old Channel Maker might have one last hurrah.