Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 31, 2020: Picks for Awad Stakes, Zagora Stakes, Churchill race 9
This weekend is the time to get your Pre on – as in Breeders’ Cup pre-entries, publicly released Wednesday. Final fields aren’t set, but these offer more than a rough guide for Breeders’ Cup handicapping study.
Breeders’ Cup breezes will come fast and furious over the weekend, too, though keep in mind most trainers ask for major work two weeks out and put on finishing touches this weekend. Having already done quite a bit of work myself, here’s an early list of under-the-radar horses to consider for all the BC races save the short-field Juvenile Fillies.
Classic: Tom’s d’Etat, By My Standards
Distaff: Horologist
Turf: Tarnawa
Mile: Ivar, Lope Y Fernandez
Filly and Mare Turf: Angel Power, Terebellum
Sprint: Empire of Gold
Filly and Mare Sprint: Bell’s the One
Dirt Mile: Art Collector, Silver Dust
Turf Sprint: Bulletproof One
Juvenile: Sittin On Go
Juvenile Turf: Cadillac, Outadore
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Editor At Large, Oodnadatta
Juvenile Turf Sprint: After Five
Now, back to our regularly schedule programming.
Belmont is the Weekend GamePlan focus on a Saturday light enough in stakes that a stakes-class Churchill allowance race made the menu.
Awad Stakes
The possibility of a wet course throws a monkey wrench into turf racing at Belmont, but I like Space Launch here regardless.
Space Launch, with only a debut maiden win on his résumé, cedes experience and lacks the stakes seasoning many of his opponents have gotten, but from the appearance of his first start, his head is screwed on right and he won’t get confused, intimidated, etc. And what of those stakes-experienced rivals?
The Laurel Futurity was run in a bog, making it difficult to truly assess performance, but Wootton Asset’s early trouble wasn’t significant and didn’t get him beat, while victorious Catman came into the race a maiden and didn’t do anything suggesting he’s special.
The Pilgrim seemed meaningfully better than the Laurel Futurity, but the only horse out of that race who’s interesting is runner-up Public Sector, who goes in the BC Juvenile Turf.
Respect to It Can Be Done, who has come a long way from his $40,000 maiden-claiming debut, to the extent his connections pre-entered him in the BC Juvenile Turf, and while I do worry about him shaking loose on a comfortable lead, Space Launch still can run him down.
Space Launch was caught behind a false pace in his debut but negated that disadvantage with a sub-22 second closing quarter-mile, a finish accomplished with but two left-handed cracks of Manny Franco’s whip. Trainer Christophe Clement over the last five years has tried just seven horses coming off a debut win in a turf-route stakes – three of them won.
Zagora Stakes
A year ago, Mutamakina would have pummeled the fillies and mares she meets in the 1 1/2-mile Zagora Stakes, but the filly has not been the same at age 4 as she was at age 3.
Her pair of seconds last season to Terebellum, who nearly won the 2020 Queen Anne and races in the BC Filly and Mare Turf, and to 2020 Arc hero Sottsass is form no one here remotely approaches. Does she stay 1 1/2 miles? Of course, she does, and so stoutly that connections tried her in the 14-furlong Prix de Royallieu in September 2019.
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The “L” set within a darkened oval in her past performances, first-time Lasix, could be a major factor in why she was shipped to Clement late this summer. Perhaps just a change of scenery and training style helps jolt her back toward her best, too. There was only one video workout available for Mutamakina, that the Oct. 25 easy half-mile, which she did in company with Zagora runner Olympic Games; Mutamakina subtly blew her mates doors off that morning, looking quite sharp.
Churchill race 9
This is every bit a Grade 3-quality allowance field, a prep for the Grade 1 Clark in November, which is an important factor to consider.
Brad Cox has two entrants, and while I believe Plainsman is the better horse in toto than M G Warrior, the thought is Plainsman also is the better hope for the Clark, and that M G Warrior can have his turn Saturday.
M G Warrior doesn’t really want 1 1/8 miles, the Clark trip, but what he does want is Churchill, where he’s never been worse than second in four starts, none of which came under Cox’s care. The work pattern for the comeback race looks better than solid, and jockey Joe Talamo ought to be able to stick M G Warrior right behind likely speeds Fact Finding and Endorsed.