Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 2, 2021: Picks for Awesome Again, Rodeo Drive, Belmont Turf Sprint

A salty Saturday of North American racing, from Belmont and Laurel through Churchill Downs and out to Santa Anita. And that’s just North America on Saturday. Sunday in France brings the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and five attendant Group 1s as the season turns into the homestretch toward the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.

Awesome Again

Medina Spirit’s Sept. 25 final work for his first start against older horses impressed me. The five-furlong official clocking tells only part of the story; he and Ax Man worked at least a quarter-mile past the finish, really going at each other around the clubhouse turn, and Medina Spirit appeared more spirited than in his previous drill.

I’d anticipate a strong showing from Medina Spirit, but will Tizamagician compromise his chances? The Pacific Classic runner-up has an early TimeformUS pace number suggesting he can’t keep up with Medina Spirit, but I think he’s faster than that. To have any win chance he must be sent to the front from this rail draw, and if Medina Spirit wants to cross and clear, he should have to work.

Tripoli peaked at Del Mar and might prefer 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/8 miles; Idol, idle since March, definitely prefers 1 1/4 miles and is prepping for the BC Classic. Express Train has a bounce-back race in him after a flat Pacific Classic, while Midcourt’s best lick likely is 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita – this race. But those two are known quantities.

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Stilleto Boy has to be 20-1 here, making him playable even beyond the win pool. Stilleto Boy’s previous owners, which included his former trainer, had a dispute that led to the colt’s sale following an encouraging Iowa Derby win. His California debut came on turf, which he couldn’t handle, and I found his Shared Belief to be commendable and suggestive of untapped talent.

Blinkers were removed for the Shared Belief and Stilleto Boy changed racing style from front-runner to stalker, responding favorably. He ran the fastest quarter between the half-mile and quarter-mile poles while moving quickly into contention, and I thought he was ready to make a final run at Medina Spirit and Rock Your World when the latter drifted into Team Merchants, who came out into Stilleto Boy’s path, literally knocking him sideways, seriously compromising trouble.

Stilleto Boy has come back with a bullet drill, could slot into a very favorable trip at a distance he should stay, and gets as much as eight pounds from his foes. He’s worth a second look at the expected odds.

Rodeo Drive

With all due respect to the SoCal older female turf division, the first thing I did perusing the Rodeo Drive was look for horses coming from outside that division. Magic Attitude is the obvious one, and she’d be easy to back at the right price. I doubt that price will be offered on a Grade 1 North American winner over this 1 1/4-mile trip.

The Diana, her last start, was run over a Saratoga course that had taken rain; Magic Attitude wants fast, firm going, and you can just draw a line through her New York Stakes dud. Still, Magic Attitude has won only one race this season, a moderate renewal of the Sheepshead Bay.

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I’ll cast my lot with Luck, also a French import, though her career there came under far more modest circumstances than Magic Attitude’s. Luck didn’t show much in her lone overseas turf start, and maybe it was the flat, turning configuration of the French synthetic tracks, not just the surfaces themselves, that suited her.

Luck looked very comfortable on turf in her North American debut. Granted, she merely was beating first-level rivals, but Luck closed with alacrity into a modest pace, really reaching out with bounding strides through her final furlong. That same energy and stride showed up in recent workout videos on both dirt and turf, and Luck should get this 10-furlong trip at a square price.

Belmont Turf Sprint

Chewing Gum could come down from his 8-1 morning line but should offer fair win value. His second-place finish in the Jaipur wins this race, and after being compromised by a slow start in a very productive renewal of the Troy Stakes, Chewing Gum comes here off an eighth-place Kentucky Downs finish much better than his placing, owing to a very wide homestretch run on a course strongly favoring inside paths.