Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 17, 2026: Picks for Raven Run, Perryville, and Lure

When I looked ahead at Saturday’s stakes schedule it was like opening the food cabinet to find an old protein bar and two mooncakes, the ones with preserved egg in the center, our neighbor bought us in Chinatown. And if that sounds very specific, well . . .

When you’re hungry, you eat what you got. When you Weekend GamePlan, you pick from what’s out there.

Raven Run

Briefly perusing the Raven Run shortly after the past performances came out, my eyes went straight to With a Kiss. Two races and no stakes experience. Long gap between starts. Modest Beyer Speed Figures, 86 and 70. Why in the name of Todd Pletcher was this filly shipped from New York for a tough Grade 2?

If Pletcher’s record serves as a guide, probably for good reason. Pletcher the last five years in Keeneland dirt stakes: 45-14-5-7, a 31 percent strike rate, and among those winners were five horses between 4-1 and 9-1. Figured a deeper dive into With a Kiss would reveal more – and it did.

First, the competition.

The morning line has Mashallah the 8-5 favorite. I have problems with this line – such as Star Actress and Army’s Marauder listed at the same price – but 8-5 seems about right. Mashallah, no doubt, is good. Is she 106 Beyer Speed Figure good? Granted, Mashallah has thumped everyone she’s met her last three starts, but let’s be real: Those races, even the Prioress, were tailor-made for a speedy, very talented filly. Mashallah clearly can win, but she faces a higher class of horse, and I couldn’t rate her above Movie Night and Conceit.

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While Mashallah won the Tyson Gilpin and the Prioress, Movie Night ran in the Grade 1 Test, then against the Test winner, Explora, in the Dogwood. Just pitch the Test, where it all went wrong for Movie Night from the start, and in the Dogwood she showed she’s nearly Explora’s equal. I doubt she’s as high as 9-2, especially with Flavien Prat taking a call. She should get a perfect pressing trip outside Mashallah, but I wonder if she comes right back to her Dogwood.

The same concern applies to Conceit, who capitalized on an ideal stalking trip as Explora and Movie Night slugged it out. Conceit could regress, too, but makes only the third start of her season and might yet have room to grow this year.

With a Kiss debuted at odds of 3-5 and won her debut in a gallop. She worked back a few times, then fell off the map until this summer. Luckily, we have many of her Saratoga works on video, and those are something to see. Pletcher has matched her with some tough older horses, and With a Kiss has more than matched those workmates.

In her comeback run, where Star Actress responded favorably to a cutback in distance, With a Kiss opened up easily going to the furlong grounds, then seemed to wait. When Star Actress came to her, she had plenty in the tank, keeping her advantage through the gallop-out. I think she gets a great trip sitting third behind Movie Night, and I think this filly has much more to offer than we’ve yet seen in the afternoon.

Perryville

My detour into supporting favorites last weekend ran into a brick wall, but, again, there are so few options this Saturday, I have to go back to Keeneland for the Perryville. And I can go nowhere in the Perryville other than Deep Flame. We’re looking here at by far the fastest horse in the race, and that’s just up to this point. Deep Flame has improved all year and has gotten a nice breather since running into Englishman in the Allen Jerkens.

Seven furlongs is his trip, he handled the Keeneland dirt in April, and he should get a very good clean, stalking trip. Likely odds-on, but he’s a horse to lean on heavily.

Lure

Nesso’s Lastharrah’s last two forays into two-turn racing did not go well, but here, in the five-horse Lure, look for him to duplicate the route races he ran in August 2025 and August 2024.

Nesso’s Lastharrah rates comfortably on the lead, and in the August 2025 race, he had a nice upper stretch burst after the competition closed in around the far turn. None of his Lure rivals have the pace to keep him from shaking loose, and Nesso’s Lastharrah isn’t coming back to them.

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