Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 17, 2020: Picks for Raven Run, Floral Park, Keeneland allowance

Saturday’s best racing might be over by the time you fire up your computer for the North American afternoon cards.

This is QIPCO British Champions Day, the made-to-compete-with-the-Breeders’ Cup year-end program consisting of five stakes at Ascot Racecourse, four Group 1’s and a Group 2. Of course, the ground is somewhere between soft and very soft for this important day of racing, which has become standard for the event.

The highlight horses are clear: Palace Pier, strong favorite in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, with Magical and Mishriff at the head of the betting markets for the featured Champion over 1 1/4 miles. Of those, only Magical has been seriously mentioned as a probable starter in a race at the Breeders’ Cup, situated three weeks rather than the usual two – a blessing – away from Champions Day.

Three weeks and all eyes will be on Keeneland, site of the 2020 Breeders’ Cup and two of the three races under consideration this weekend.

Raven Run

Outstanding renewal of this seven-furlong fixture for 3-year-old fillies, featuring both a large field and some really good horses. Best-known in this group is Venetian Harbor, who had a brief spin as, potentially, the best member of her generation, which she has proven not to be, regardless of distance. Venetian Harbor’s three-race losing streak has come about because she ran into Swiss Skydiver, Speech, and Gamine, three very good fillies. Speech is the weakest of those, and she took care of Venetian Harbor in the Ashland, and when Venetian Harbor got the turn-back to a sprint many thought she needed in the Test, Gamine didn’t just beat her, she buried her.

It’s fair to question whether Venetian Harbor is much better today than she was before her first start of 2020, and while she does not have to lead, she and all the other forward-racers could over-heat the early and, even more so, middle pace in the Raven Run. All the apparent speed also is bad news for Four Graces, who got hooked and cooked last out in the Eight Belles and could meet a similar fate.

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Fair Maiden had been my pick to close from the back part of the field and win the Raven Run, but she was announced Thursday as an intended scratch, and Secret Keeper already held appeal for me.

In fact, I picked Secret Keeper to win the Torrey Pines Stakes in her most recent start. She didn’t but her runner-up performance there, combined with two sharp wins to begin her career, mark her as a value play in the Raven Run.

In the Torrey Pines, Secret Keeper’s first start around two turns, she took steady, serious, and, in the end, compromising pace pressure, setting intemperate fractions for the distance and her level of experience. When eventual winner Harvest Moon came to her in mid-stretch, Secret Keeper tried to respond but ran out of gas. What did Harvest Moon do for an encore? Went to the Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes and whipped some good older fillies and mares. Secret Keeper benefits cutting back to seven furlongs and brings an eye-catching work pattern from Cali to Keeneland, and here’s hoping for a clean outside trip without too much ground loss.

Floral Park

Do you know the last time I’llhandalthecash turned in a performance strong enough to win the Floral Park, a six-furlong turf sprint at Belmont? That would be the last time she raced in a six-furlong turf sprint at Belmont, July 3, when she won the License Fee. The course that day was listed “good,” and given the forecast the going could be similar Saturday. I’llhandalthecash had meaningful trouble two back at Saratoga and can easily be forgiven her soft-turf Kentucky Downs flop last time, and who, really, is there to fear in the Floral Park?

Keeneland allowance, race 8

This space considers stakes. There were only a handful to consider this week, and race 8 at Keeneland, a stakes-quality nine-furlong turf allowance, is the second- or third-best race in North America on Saturday. Let’s do it.

Dontblamerocket has been really good all year and need only hold serve to contend, while Corelli left France to avoid soft turf but found it last out at Saratoga. But I’ll take a shot with Bizzee Channel, who can choose at which tempo this race will be run since he is very much the lone speed. Here’s hoping the new rider lets him use his pace more than he got to last time at Arlington. This 4-year-old still has room to improve on turf and he is bred to be able to stay this nine-furlong distance.