Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 16, 2021: Picks for Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, Sands Point, Gold Cup
The big races mainly come Saturday morning, not Saturday afternoon, since this is QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot in England. The Champion Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II are very spicy, and you should tune in during breakfast or brunch in advance of a limited North American stakes menu later in the day.
Queen Elizabeth II
It’s not enough that there are two top-level turf stakes named the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes? They had to run them on the same day? Keeneland’s version can’t match the Ascot QE II for quality, but this is a fine renewal of the nine-furlong fixture for 3-year-old fillies.
Empress Josephine and two Chad Brown-trained fillies should be the shortest prices in the win pool, with Empress Josephine listed as the 2-1 favorite on the morning line. I picked and bet this filly to win the First Lady last Saturday at Keeneland, and while she ran well facing older horses, the one-mile trip proved too sharp for Empress Josephine, who couldn’t accelerate rapidly enough in upper stretch.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the 2011 QE II with Together, second a week before in the First Lady, and everyone seems to be thinking that since O’Brien did it once, he’ll automatically do it again. Maybe, but while the nine furlongs works better for Empress Josephine than the mile, there’s no assurance she’ll love the rapid turnaround.
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I prefer Shantisara to Technical Analysis between the Brown pair but believe both horses are a little overrated based on speed figures. Technical Analysis has gotten dream trips in her two recent stakes wins while Shantisara cuts back to nine furlongs after peaking going 11 in New York. She did win over this trip two back in the Pucker Up but beat soft competition in that race at Arlington.
Lady Speightspeare tempted as a win play and looks very usable as potential lone speed with serious upside on the day. A Grade 1 winner at age 2, she has plenty of room to improve in just her second start this season and, despite being by Speightstown, is very likely to stay nine furlongs.
Still, I’ll side with Flippant to win. Flippant will be, as they say, “tested for class” making her first Grade 1 appearance, but she’s 15-1 on the line and even if she’s bet down somewhat from that price ought to offer double-digit win odds.
Flippant has shown versatility in a number of areas putting together a three-race win streak, all on grass, and her nine-furlong score last out in a decent renewal of the Virginia Oaks was eye-catching, indeed. Flippant finished furiously, has come back with three local works, and ran well in April over a Keeneland course with some give in it – like now.
Sands Point
Not only are there two QE IIs on Saturday, the two best races in North America are for 3-year-old fillies at nine furlongs on turf.
The Sands Point, as should be the case, has a lesser cast than the QE II – and also a pace void. Jordan’s Leo might make the front from an inside draw but I’d expect my pick and play, Our Flash Drive, to be right with her through a slow tempo.
Our Flash Drive raced near the front winning the Selene on Tapeta and the Ontario Colleen on turf, but Sept. 19 at Belmont somehow wound up last of 11 in the Pebbles Stakes, where she ran on for a solid fourth after being taken out of her comfort zone. She came back with a bullet drill and should be far more forwardly placed Saturday in a race where the favorites on the morning line appear to want more distance than they’re getting.
Gold Cup
The stakes slate is limited enough to take us to Delta Downs, which hosts the $75,000 Gold Cup for Louisiana-breds.
The seven-furlong, two-turn Gold Cup includes, believe it or not, a Grade 1 winner, No Parole. He’s even money on the morning line, likely a shorter price than that at post time, and I’ll try to beat him.
No Parole is 2 for 2 at Delta, but one of those races came at five furlongs and in the other, at this seven-furlong trip, No Parole took a decided step back from his best form. That’s because even a bull-ring seven furlongs is farther than ideal, and with some pace to at least mildly press him here, in his first start since April, No Parole might be beatable.
Grand Luwegee threw a turf dud in his most recent start but isn’t really a turf horse and has run a number of strong races at Delta. He’s likely been working at Evangeline Downs, which doesn’t have a clocker, and can stalk the pace, pounce, and upset the Gold Cup.