Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 14, 2023: Picks for Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, Sands Point, Ontario Matron

All of racing’s momentum moves toward the Breeders’ Cup at this point in autumn, but there are important stakes races still to be run in October.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

Hard to imagine this race, which in many recent years has come up somewhat soft, would attract a field this deep and this strong. To me, the American fillies, those that have campaigned here all season, are going to struggle to contend. Mission of Joy is due for a bounce-back race at a price, but I can’t see her winning.

Mawj is listed as the 2-1 favorite, but I wonder if she’s that short. She does have the classic win in the 1000 Guineas, but trainer Saeed bin Suroor has become a stranger in this land, and she won’t be bet like a Godolphin shipper trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick. I’m definitely against Mawj, who has quality to her, but was one of the few horses in the Guineas who could stand up on a deep, laboring course. There’s obviously the long layoff to consider and no guarantee the filly stays nine furlongs.

The other two Euro shippers hold more appeal. Sounds of Heaven just was done in by soft ground last out in France, and her third in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot over much firmer footing makes her a major player here. She has some early pace and might suit American racing, but the trainer has not had much luck this side of the Atlantic.

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Elounda Queen is the least accomplished of the trio but might be the best bet among them. She’s progressive and really caught the eye in her last race with a powerhouse last-to-first move in the homestretch at Deauville.

Another short price I’m fading: Elusive Princess. While she was an easy winner in her American debut at Saratoga, she needs at least that 1 3/16-mile trip for her best, and she’s making her first start since switching to an American barn.

The play is the other French filly with one race in America, and Lindy had her start while already trained by Brendan Walsh. Lindy showed a sparkling turn of foot in her French races and appears to go well on good or firm turf. Outside the French Oaks, where she somehow wound up on the lead, entirely the wrong place for Lindy, the only horse to beat her is Blue Rose Cen, who has a claim on being the best 3-year-old filly in Europe. Lindy merely tolerated a messy, wet track at Kentucky Downs, but that race should have her primed for a step forward at a fair price.

Sands Point

Like the QE II, this is a nine-furlong contest for 3-year-old fillies, those not quite up to the Keeneland race in the same division. Be Your Best is cross-entered at Keeneland but expected to start in New York, and she’s the bet.

Be Your Best brings a litany of tough luck to the Sands Point, and I think she’s the best nine-furlong horse in the race. She didn’t care for yielding ground in the Miss Grillo last fall, had a terrible trip in the Breeders’ Cup, didn’t get over good going in April at Keeneland, then missed by a neck to loose leader Prerequisite in the Wonder Again. She got the wrong trip pressing the pace in the Belmont Oaks, and finally got to run her race last out at Del Mar, only to encounter Anisette, who would win this race easily.

The hope and expectation is the betting public will go for the Godolphin filly, Eternal Hope, but she was all out to get up at 11 furlongs while closing into a fast pace. This is too short for her. Be Your Best will get first run – and prove best.

Ontario Matron

I remember writing about Mouffy in the weekly Breakout Beyers feature when she notched a debut win in January 2022 over the Gulfstream Tapeta. The point made there was that this route-bred filly won a sprint and would improve with more distance. She finally got two turns in July and in August won a turf-route stakes over decent competition. Now Mouffy has found a Tapeta route race she fits like a glove. She’s in for a ground-saving trip behind an honest-to-fast pace, and the 4-1 morning-line odds would be acceptable.

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