Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 12, 2019: Picks for Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, E.P. Taylor Stakes, Nearctic Stakes

It’s fully autumn now, getting cold all over after some surprisingly summery weather, there’s a lot of rain over the eastern half of the country, and nearly all the main Saturday stakes action is on turf. Summer fast-ground grass horses are going to start struggling to get over more demanding ground, and we’ll see what sort of effect that has on the races at Keeneland, Woodbine, and Belmont.

The North American feature Saturday is the Grade 1 Canadian International, but where are the horses? There’s a short field, and Ziyad, even-money on the morning line, looks formidable. Two other Woodbine stakes, however, might be mined for some value, and the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland is full of intrigue.

Queen Elizabeth II

Chad Brown’s three-headed monster has perhaps only two and a half heads, with Regal Glory drawn wide and seemingly a full cut below the best in this nine-furlong 3-year-old fixture. Cambier Parc came into this season a distant second fiddle to the mighty little Newspaperofrecord, whose 2-year-old exploits burned quickly away in the spring sun, leaving Cambier Parc queen of Brown’s sophomore turf fillies. Is she still?

Cafe Americano didn’t beat the strongest bunch in the Pucker Up at Arlington, but my, what a move she made to get there, and she brims with upside.

This race has a total pace void, and one wonders if it’s a European, Castle Lady, who fills it. Castle Lady has often raced prominently and stretches from a mile to nine furlongs for the first time. There’s little fear here regarding the break of several months, and it’s encouraging that her best races have come around turns while she was less successful running down a straight course when last seen at Royal Ascot.

Winning the French 1000 Guineas, even over a meh group, as Castle Lady did, gets you high marks, but to win this I’ll try a different European filly, Magnetic Charm. For starters, forget the 12-1 morning-line odds – she’ll be shorter than that, perhaps half the price. And it must be noted that her second-place finish last out while facing older horses in the Canadian Stakes at Woodbine came with a considerable break in the weights. Still, she came home faster there than solid elders, like Competitionofideas, while the winner stole off to the easiest of leads, and there’s an abiding suspicion that crack English horseman William Haggas had this filly, owned by the Queen of England, aimed all along to the Queen Elizabeth.

E.P. Taylor Stakes

Hey, maybe Starship Jubilee, in roaring form, steals off to another easy lead and buries the E.P. Taylor field like she did the Canadian. But taking a short-ish price on a 6-year-old coming off one of the two best races of her career and stretching to a distance probably beyond her best seems imprudent.

There’s a host of Euros from which to choose, and while Red Tea (another 6-year-old) and Durance hold some appeal, I’ll try Imperial Charm here.

Imperial Charm has form lines running through Castle Lady, who looks like a main player in the QE II, but where Castle Lady looks like a mile, mile-and-an-eighth type, 10 furlongs on a flat North American course could really suit Imperial Charm. This filly never has run a bad race, just got out-quicked late in a straight mile last time – a race that should have her set to move forward – and she gets the services of one of Europe’s best jockeys, Andrea Atzeni.

Nearctic Stakes

The Mark Casse-trained 5-year-old Blind Ambition is 5-2 on the morning-line for the six-furlong Nearctic, while the Casse-trained 4-year-old Lookin to Strike is 12-1. The two ran similar Woodbine turf allowance races earlier in the meet and I’d have to think that Lookin to Strike, who mainly has been a route horse, has considerably more upside than Blind Ambition, who was plenty exposed last year for a different trainer.

On paper there’s just too much strong speed entered here for them not to be flying, and Lookin to Strike can just idle along at the rear and wait to make his run in the homestretch, which is a different trip than he got just missing to Nearctic starter Boreal Spirit going a mere five furlongs on the local turf course. While that race was too short, this distance could hit Lookin to Strike right in the wheelhouse, and his price is almost certain to be fair.