Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 10, 2026: Picks for Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, Hill Prince, California Flag
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Being a contrary and critical person by nature has served me well as a public handicapper. My first impulse is to poke holes in a race’s shortest-priced horses. Sometimes, you just don’t find that many holes. I nearly took three chalks this quiet Saturday in October.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
Luster is dressed up so prettily for this race. Are we looking at glittery chintz or high-quality material?
I’ve heard the King’s Plate described as a “million dollar a-other-than,” and there’s something to that. Restricted to Canadian-foaled horses, the race has produced very good winners but tends to have a shallow field. Two Octobers ago, Caitlinhergrtness came straight to the QE II from a King’s Plate victory. She finished a well-beaten third at 14-1. Caitlinhergrtness won the King’s Plate by three-quarters of a length with an 88 Beyer Speed Figure and had raced once before on turf, winning a Woodbine first-level allowance two starts before the King’s Plate. Luster won the King’s Plate by 7 1/4 lengths with a 102 Beyer. That came on the back of a 97 Beyer and came under a John Velazquez hand ride from the furlong grounds.
I think Caitlinhergrtness was a very good filly. I think Luster might be a star.
Luster has had two turf races, the first and second starts of her career. Luster raced greenly at Woodbine as a 2-year-old yet still came willingly through the inside and coasted to an easy win. Trainer Josie Carroll wintered the filly at Palm Meadows in Florida and found a race for her 3-year-old debut in April while on the way to summer quarters at Woodbine. That happened to come on Keeneland turf.
The horse closest to Luster at the quarter pole, the eventual runner-up, was Amberglen, who on Aug. 1 won the Grade 3 Lake George at Saratoga over Deep Learning, whose connections accepted an invite to the QE II. Luster, whistling her fourth quarter-mile in 22.96 seconds, absolutely buried Amberglen.
Luster, I am almost sure, does not require a synthetic surface to show her best.
This QE II came up stronger than par. I wanted to take Faithful Departed, who had no luck at all in her two Saratoga tries, for a minor upset as the second choice, and toyed with an even deeper cut, Lookin At Diamond, who enters with all manner of upside and ran even better in the Del Mar Oaks than victorious Tam Tam.
I could see using Lookin At Diamond underneath because I can’t see Luster losing.
Hill Prince
My jaw dropped watching Caroline St. Beat wear down Grade 1 Saratoga Derby winner Glacius in the Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs. Glacius had controlled a comfortable pace and wound up more than three lengths ahead of the third horse home, yet proved no late match for 17-1 Caroline St. Beat.
My jaw dropped again when, up close and personal, I watched Caroline St. Beat walk to the winner’s circle to get his picture taken. More like Caroline St. Beast! Incredible physical specimen – obviously, since the Nashville Derby came in wilting heat, and only seven days after the colt had won a New York-bred allowance at Saratoga.
The trainer, in a post-race phone call, hinted that this relatively unaccomplished horse might have been his most promising 2-year-old last year. So I went back and looked at all his races and workouts available – yep, it was all hidden in plain sight. Watch the Aug. 6 dirt drill inside the hickory older horse Tawny Port. That’s far from the only impressive breeze.
The first four starts of this colt’s career? All much too short for him, and all during a prolonged developmental phase that has molded what might be a serious horse. The 17-1 might go all the way down to something like 17-10, but Caroline St. Beat is going to get his picture taken again.
California Flag
Lonesome Stew did accelerate like a wild horse winning a two-turn mile last out at Del Mar. No work video, but he’s been blazing bullets. The horse handles Santa Anita’s downhill course, too. But 6-5? Could he really be as short as the morning-line price?
I like Boss Sully to pull a perfect pressing trip outside Flyover, get first run, and beat Lonesome Stew to the wire. We do have recent work video for this horse, who has been breezing like . . . a boss. He can stay this distance and has ample quality to make the most of good racing luck.
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