Weekend GamePlan for Oct. 10, 2020: Picks for Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, Fayette, Sands Point
Saturday should be all about Belmont Park, but despite the presence of some fine horses, the stakes races there are for the most part unappealing from a wagering perspective.
Jackie’s Warrior and Reinvestment Risk are the top two juvenile males in North America right now (you saw what Mutasaabeq, a distant third behind them in the Hopeful, did to the Bourbon Stakes field Sunday at Keeneland), and we’ll see if Reinvestment Risk can make inroads on Jackie’s Warrior’s considerable advantage going seven furlongs at Saratoga when they try one mile in the Champagne. The Grade 1 Frizette has less raw talent than the Champagne but more possibilities (doubt any of these are up to Simply Ravishing or Princess Noor in the Breeders’ Cup), while the Flower Bowl is more noteworthy for who it lacks (Sistercharlie, taken out of consideration for the race the first of October) than who it includes. Tacitus at even money in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, anyone? Didn’t think so.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
Let’s be clear: The Belmont Oaks Invitational had five runners and wasn’t much of a race this year. Antoinette set the pace and finished second and is an 8-1 shot here in the QEII. But what really caught the eye was how quickly Magic Attitude went from fifth to first when given her cue by Javier Castellano. She won easily off a slow pace going 1 1/4 miles and could be even better suited to this 1 1/8-mile distance.
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This was a real racehorse in France, not some provincial flash-in-the-pan who came up for sale. The Prix de Diane (French Oaks) was a strong race this year and Magic Attitude was quite competitive following a fine second in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary to Tawkeel, who was winning her fourth race in a row there, went on to capture another Group 3, and this past Sunday finished fourth facing older horses over heavy, holding ground in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera. Of course, the motivating force in this space is hunting non-favored value plays, but lacking three such horses this week, taking a strong favorite will have to do. The morning-line price, 5-2, unfortunately feels far too high, and the win odds could drop outside a playable range for me.
There could be value in the exactas, since the second and third choices on the line aren’t rock solid. My thought was Hendy Woods, who has had more bad luck than good this form cycle and squished through a quagmire at Indiana even when she won.
Fayette
Mr Freeze and Tax have easily hit the highest level of any horse in the Fayette and are priced accordingly on the morning line. I’m happy to oppose both. Tax has struggled to find his 2019 form all season and comes off a long layoff for a trainer whose win percentage has plummeted in recent months. Mr Freeze, who in the best of times struggles to stay this nine-furlong distance, got the easiest lead imaginable in the Alysheba Stakes and still ran last.
What a tiring Mr Freeze also did last out at Churchill was drift into the path of solidly closing Title Ready at the eighth pole, causing Title Ready to be steadied and lose some momentum, and preventing him from finishing closer than he did. Title Ready got all the worst of the slow Alysheba pace and was caught flat-footed when the tempo dramatically increased around the far turn, and all things considered, he performed encouragingly that day. He overcame nearly a year away to win over the Keeneland track in July and just needs some pace help up front to make his presence felt at double-digit win odds.
Sands Point
Tamahere is 5-2 on the line making her U.S. debut for trainer Chad Brown, and she might well be just fine, but her major, last-start win came over a soft course, and she will be encountering much different conditions Saturday.
Miss J McKay will get a play from me if her morning-line price holds. This filly has yet to run farther than 6 1/2 furlongs on turf, but based on pedigree and running style, it’s hard to see what keeps her from getting a one-turn mile. She finished off her Kentucky Downs run with good energy, got in two subsequent works, and is well drawn for clean pressing or stalking trip.